By Omkar Godbole (All times ET unless otherwise noted)
Bitcoin appears to be taking on bullish momentum, with volatility expected to increase as prices approach a $3 billion trigger point.
The leading cryptocurrency by market capitalization climbed through $72,100 during European hours, the broadly tracked average price over the past 50 days. According to analysts, a firm move above this level would confirm bullish momentum, potentially attracting more buyers.
Volatility is likely to increase if prices approach $75,000. This is where options, which provide order book liquidity and ensure a seamless trading experience, have net “short gamma” positions worth $3 billion, according to Markus Thielen, the founder of 10x Research.
This means that when prices rise towards this level, these units are likely to buy to rebalance their net exposure to neutral, even if prices rise. This so-called dealer hedging can increase market volatility and potentially accelerate any rally. Note that market makers make money through bid-ask spread, not price direction.
“The options market shows about $3 billion of negative gamma exposure at the $75,000 strike, meaning traders are likely to be short gamma around this level. As Bitcoin moves higher towards this region, trader hedging flows may start to play a more important role in shaping price dynamics,” Thielen said in a note to clients.
However, it is not a concrete scenario. Alex Kuptsikevich, chief market analyst at FxPro, worries that macro headwinds will halt gains in bitcoin.
“External factors are acting as a headwind, including rising oil and dollar prices, as well as the Nasdaq 100 and S&P 500 indexes falling to their 200-day lows. We doubt Bitcoin will have the strength to withstand the headwinds for long, and internal resistance could soon become a significant obstacle to growth,” he said in an email.
Traditional markets actually send risk-off signals. The strongest hint comes from the US financial market, which supports global finance. The MOVE index, which measures 30-day expected price turbulence in government bonds, rose more than 21% to 95 points on Thursday, the biggest one-day gain since October 2024, according to data source TradingView.
Sharp increases in Treasury volatility often tighten money globally, stifling credit flows and triggering a broad sell-off across markets. Pay attention!
Read more: For analysis of today’s activity in altcoins and derivatives, see Crypto Markets Today
What to see
For a more comprehensive list of events this week, see CoinDesk’s “Crypto Week Ahead.”
- Crypto
- Macro
- 13 March at 8:30 am: US GDP growth QoQ second estimate for Q4 Est. 1.4% (Previous 1.4%;)
- 13 March at 8:30am: US core PCE price index MoM for January estimated. 0.4% (Previous 0.4%)
- 13 March at 8.30am: US personal spending MoM for January estimated. 0.3% (Previous 0.4%)
- 13 March at 10:00am: US JOLTS job openings for January estimated. 6.7 million (Previous 6,542 million)
- 13 March at 10:00: Consumer sentiment in the US, Michigan, provisional for March (prev 56.6)
- Earnings (Estimated based on FactSet data)
- March 13: Bit Digital (BTBT), pre-market, -$0.01
Token Events
For a more comprehensive list of events this week, see CoinDesk’s “Crypto Week Ahead.”
- Governance votes and calls
- No major calls planned.
- Unlocks
- March 13: WhiteBit Coin (WBT) to unlock 27.77% of its circulating supply, worth $4.59 billion.
- The token is launched
- March 13: Ether.fi KAT token rewards to be distributed.
Conferences
For a more comprehensive list of events this week, see CoinDesk’s “Crypto Week Ahead.”
Market movements
- BTC is up 2.95% as of 16 ET Thursday at $72,457.14 (24 hours: +3.14%)
- ETH is up 2.92% to $2,128.69 (24h: +3%)
- CoinDesk 20 is up 3.14% to 2,068.83 (24 hours: +3.01%)
- Ether CESR Composite Staking Rate is up 1 bps to 2.79%
- BTC funding rate is at 0.0015% (1.6688% annualized) on Binance
- DXY is up 0.42% to 100.16.
- Gold futures are down 0.44% at $5,093.40
- Silver futures are down 2.11% at $82.89
- The Nikkei 225 closed up 1.16% at 53,819.61
- The Hang Seng closed up 0.98% at 25,465.60
- The FTSE 100 is down 0.43% at 10,260.60
- The Euro Stoxx 50 is down 0.71% to 5,708.34
- The DJIA closed Thursday down 1.56% at 46,677.85.
- The S&P 500 closed up 1.52% at 6,672.62
- The Nasdaq Composite closed up 1.78% at 22,311.98
- The S&P/TSX Composite closed up 0.84% at 32,840.60
- The S&P 40 Latin America closed up 1.43% at 3,611.39.
- The US 10-year Treasury yield is up 6 bps to 4.27%
- E-mini S&P 500 futures rose 0.30% to 6,697.75
- E-mini Nasdaq-100 futures rose 0.29% to 24,631.50
- The E-mini Dow Jones Industrial Average Index is up 0.34% at 46,881.00
Bitcoin statistics
- BTC Dominance: 59.44% (0.24%)
- Ether to bitcoin ratio: 0.0294 (0.01%)
- Hashrate (seven-day moving average): 984 EH/s
- Hash price (spot): $31.34
- Total fees: 2.69 BTC / $188,598
- CME Futures open interest: 110,290 BTC
- BTC priced in gold: 14.2 oz.
- BTC vs Gold Market Cap: 4.82%
Technical Analysis
- The chart shows bitcoin’s daily price swings in candlestick format since the end of 2025. It also plots the Fibonacci retracements from the January-February selloff and the 50-day simple moving average of bitcoin’s price.
- BTC’s price looks to top the 50-day SMA line. That would shift focus to the next resistance level at $74,564, which is the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the sell.
- On the other hand, a failure to penetrate the 50-day SMA could encourage sellers, potentially leading to a drop below $70,000.
Crypto stocks
- Coinbase Global (COIN): closed Thursday at $193.23 (–2.72%), +1.96% at $197.02 in premarket
- Circle Internet Group (CRCL): closed at $114.18 (+1.21%), +0.58% at $114.84
- Galaxy Digital (GLXY): closed at $20.63 (–3.87%), +1.89% at $21.02
- MARA Holdings (MARA): closed at $8.76 (+2.46%), +1.60% at $8.90
- Riot Platforms (RIOT): closed at $14.50 (–2.09%), +1.59% at $14.73
- Core Scientific (CORZ): closed at $16.24 (–1.81%)
- CleanSpark (CLSK): closed at $9.55 (–2.65%), +1.57% at $9.70
- Exodus Movement (EXOD): closed at $9.96 (–8.71%), unchanged in pre-market
- CoinShares Bitcoin Mining ETF (WGMI): closed at $37.96 (–2.47%)
- Bullish (BLSH): closed at $36.24 (–2.55%), +0.44% at $36.40
Crypto Treasury Companies
- Strategy (MSTR): closed at $137.34 (–0.72%), +2.49% at $140.76
- Strive Asset Management (ASST): closed at $8.83 (–4.33%), +1.59% at $8.97
- SharpLink (SBET): closed at $7.48 (–1.45%), +2.54% at $7.67
- Upexi (UPXI): closed at $0.93 (–9.71%), +4.61% at $0.97
- Lite Strategy (LITS): closed at $1.15 (–1.71%)
ETF Flows
Spot BTC ETFs
- Daily net flows: $53.8 million
- Cumulative net flows: $55.93 billion
- Total BTC holdings ~ 1.29M
Spot ETH ETFs
- Daily net flows: $72.4 million
- Cumulative net flows: $11.75 billion
- Total ETH holdings ~ 5.71 million
Source: Farside Investors
