Two weeks into a Middle East war and bitcoin is higher than where it started.
The biggest cryptocurrency is trading at $71,000 on Saturday morning, down 0.7% over the past 24 hours after the US bombed military targets on Kharg Island, Iran’s main crude oil export facility.
The reversal from Friday’s $73,838 high was sharp but limited. Bitcoin returned 3.5% on the Kharg headlines and stopped. A month ago, a comparable escalation would have triggered a much deeper selloff.
The weekly figures tell the story of resilience. Bitcoin is up 4.2% over seven days. Ether rose 5.5% to $2,090. Dogecoin added 5%. Solana rose 4.2% to $88. BNB rose 4.5% to $655. Every major is green this week despite the fact that the war is intensifying, not waning.
The market adapts to the conflict in real time. Early in the war, every headline produced an overarching reaction because no one could price the tail risk. Now traders have a framework where strikes happen, oil spikes and bitcoin dips only to recover.
The pattern has repeated itself enough times that the reflexive sell-headline impulse has faded. However, the $73,000-$74,000 resistance level remains in place and has now rejected bitcoin four times in two weeks.
Trump’s language on Kharg Island added a new variable in the markets.
In a Truth Social post late Friday, he said he was sparing oil infrastructure “for reasons of decency” but would “immediately reconsider” if Iran continued to block the Strait of Hormuz.
Iran responded that any attack on energy infrastructure would trigger retaliatory strikes on US-linked facilities in the region. It is a conditional escalation threat that did not exist 48 hours ago. If oil infrastructure becomes a target, the supply disruption, which the IEA already called the largest in history, will be dramatically worse.
Meanwhile, the $371 million in liquidations over the past 24 hours reflected Friday’s two-way nature. Short liquidations outnumbered longs by $207 million to $163 million, meaning the initial rise to $73,800 pressured bears before the Kharg headlines pressured the longs that had just entered.
Attention now shifts to the Fed meeting on 17-18. March. Oil above $100, the largest energy disruption in history, and a war entering its third week with no resolution make the stagflation case harder to dismiss.
CME FedWatch is still pricing in a 95%+ probability of a hold of 3.5% to 3.75%, but the dot chart and Powell’s press conference will matter more than the decision itself. Any hint that rate hikes are back on the table would hit risk assets hard, including a crypto market that has spent five months pricing in cuts that keep failing to arrive.
