Monday’s cease-fire trading lasted about 18 hours.
Bitcoin rose 3.1% to $70,352 on Tuesday morning, recovering from a weekend dip below $68,000, with ether (ETH), solana’s SOL, dogecoin and xrp rising between 2-4%.
The Wall Street Journal reported on Tuesday that Saudi Arabia has agreed to allow the US military access to King Fahd Air Base, reversing its previous stance that its bases could not be used to attack Iran. The UAE has taken similar steps.
Gulf states joining the war directly would transform the conflict from a US-Israeli operation into a broader regional coalition, a significant escalation from what markets had priced in.
Iran’s vice president ruled out talks with the United States, echoing the Fars news agency’s denial from Monday night. The Strait of Hormuz remains effectively closed with only a stream of vessels passing through.
Traditional markets reacted immediately. S&P 500 futures fell 0.5 percent. European shares were set to fall 0.8% at the open. Brent crude rose 4% to around $104. The dollar has strengthened 0.3 per cent. Gold fell 1.5%, extending what is now the longest daily losing streak on record.
The gold collapse remains the most disorienting signal in global markets. A safe haven falling to record losses during an active and escalating war breaks every historical precedent.
The most likely explanation is forced selling by funds facing margin calls across other positions, with gold being the most liquid asset to sell. But whatever the reason, it makes bitcoin’s relative stability all the more remarkable. The token that is supposed to be the volatile one keeps a range, while the one that is supposed to be stable is in free fall.
The five-day period Trump gave Iran expires Saturday, but Saudi Arabia’s involvement in the conflict completely changes the calculus. A regional coalition fighting Iran is a different war than a US-Israeli air campaign, and it puts oil infrastructure on both sides of the Gulf at risk.
Bitcoin holds $70,000 on a Tuesday morning when everything else is deteriorating. Whether it is resilience or just the market waiting for the next headline to react to is the question the rest of the week will answer.
