A diplomatic outcast a year ago, Pakistan has become a trusted regional partner and a mediator between the US and Iran to end the war in the Middle East, a remarkable transformation for the country.
The Chief of Defense Staff (CDF) and Chief of Army Staff Field Marshal Asim Munir have had several meetings with President Donald Trump, including an unprecedented one-on-one lunch at the White House, as the government apprehended an Islamic State bomber accused of killing American troops and handed him over to the United States.
In other moves to restore the country’s credibility, its diplomats have launched an extensive outreach program with world leaders as they consolidate ties with China.
“Pakistan’s civil-military leadership has been on a charm offensive that has primarily balanced US-China relations as it seeks to employ a diversified foreign policy,” said Arsla Jawaid, global risk analyst at Control Risks. Reuters.
“All these efforts are beginning to show some signs of success.”
Since Osama bin Laden was killed by US Navy SEALs in Pakistan in 2011, ties with the US and the West had declined. The imprisonment of former prime minister Imran Khan and accusations from Washington that Pakistan supported the Taliban behind the scenes during the 20-year Afghan war only made matters worse.
On the economic front, Pakistan was perilously close to a debt default until a new deal with the International Monetary Fund was struck after tough negotiations some 18 months ago.
Analysts and officials cite two turning points in Pakistan’s rebuilding of trust in Washington.
Read more: US VP Vance spoke to Pakistani mediators about the Iran conflict
The first breakthrough came last March when Pakistan helped capture a suspect in the 2021 Kabul airport bombing that killed 170 Afghans and 13 American soldiers, prompting public thanks from Trump and renewed intelligence sharing.
Maleeha Lodhi, a former Pakistan ambassador to the US, said cooperation was “critical” to reversing decades of mistrust.
In May, a clash with old enemy India reinforced the shift.
Foreign Ministry spokesman Tahir Andrabi said the 90-hour conflict gave a massive boost to Pakistan’s diplomatic credentials because the country’s “military leadership showed tremendous restraint after shooting down Indian fighter jets”.
Pakistan was quick to engage the US in efforts to end the conflict between the nuclear-armed neighbors and later nominated Trump for the Nobel Peace Prize.
Power grip
CDF Munir’s visit to the White House, the first time a sitting US president had received Pakistan’s military chief without civilian leadership present, played a pivotal role.
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Government officials have said the country’s makeover has been spurred by a strong civil-military alliance and ability to effectively juggle relations with Gulf countries as well as the United States and China.
“If there is one factor that has fueled the expansion of diplomatic opportunities for Pakistan above all, it is the trust and symbiosis between the Field Marshal and the Prime Minister,” said Mosharraf Zaidi, Prime Minister Shehbaz’s spokesman.Reuters.
Both Zaidi and Andrabi highlighted diplomatic initiatives from their offices and a flurry of meetings and near-daily phone calls with world leaders.
On Sunday, Foreign Minister Ishaq Dar hosted counterparts from Turkiye, Saudi Arabia and Egypt for talks focused on ending the war in Iran.
“Due to Dar’s frequent interactions with these foreign ministers, they can share intimate comments as well as a solemn moment,” Andrabi said.
Favorite field marshal
Ties with Washington have since deepened through frequent engagement between Pakistan’s civilian and military leadership and the White House.
CDF Munir and Prime Minister Shehbaz have held talks with the US that included investment opportunities, a crypto deal with a Trump family-linked company and security in the Middle East, anchoring Pakistan’s makeover with a mix of business deals and geopolitical alliances.
CDF Munir, whom Trump has called his “favorite field marshal”, was the only acting military chief at the World Economic Forum in Davos this year. Sources said he had additional interactions with Trump there and has spoken with Vice President JD Vance several times since the Iran war began.
Vance communicated with Pakistani mediators on the Iran conflict as recently as Tuesday, according to a source briefed on the matter, and made it clear that Trump was open to a ceasefire if certain demands were met.
Prime Minister Shehbaz, meanwhile, has held repeated meetings with Trump as well as Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman and Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian.
Pakistan signed a mutual defense agreement with Saudi Arabia last year.
Heartburn in India
However, Pakistan’s ascension on the international stage is causing heartburn in India, which has usually had the higher diplomatic profile of the two rivals. Its opposition has questioned the government’s hands-off approach in the Middle East war, and analysts say Islamabad’s rise risks leaving New Delhi on the sidelines of regional diplomacy.
Read also: Pakistan signals Iran-US talks in ‘coming days’
“For almost three weeks now, I have been calling on India to take a leadership position and leverage its good relations with both sides for a peace initiative,” said opposition lawmaker Shashi Tharoor. “Now apparently Pakistan, Egypt and Turkiye have done it. Good luck to them … but India gets no credit while Pakistan holds the peace talks.”
However, the economy remains in a tailspin and analysts say it risks being dragged into the war because of the defense pact with Saudi Arabia.
Islamabad is also embroiled in its own conflict with Afghanistan, which picked up days before the US and Israel launched attacks on Tehran.
Pakistan “must continue to look inward to strengthen its own pillars of national power, especially its economy,” said Uzair Yunus of strategic advisory firm The Asia Group.
“It is also necessary to build an integrated defense industrial complex in partnership with Saudi Arabia and Turkiye.”
Islamabad would need a long-term strategy to balance relations with Iran, its defense partnership with Riyadh and relations with Washington amid an unpredictable and possibly protracted conflict, said Jawaid of Control Risks.
“The civil-military leadership will have to be very careful about the role and extent of Pakistan’s involvement. Overplaying the broker card could prove more damaging if not handled wisely.”
