Bitcoin is trading uneasily around $66,600 as the extended holiday weekend sidelines potential buyers and gives bears greater control over price action.
With CME futures and ETF flows paused over Good Friday, the market is heading into a liquidity gap, just as its most reliable source of support is already weakening.
Bitcoin’s $65,000 support is starting to look fragile as the market’s most active buyers turn out to be its most macro dependent. In a recent report, CryptoQuant data shows 30-day apparent demand at around -63,000 BTC, even as ETF and corporate buying rises to multi-month highs, while Singapore-based market maker Enflux told CoinDesk in a note that the price floor is “partially underwritten by expectations of rate cuts.”
ETF purchases rose to around 50,000 BTC over the past 30 days, the highest since October 2025, while Strategy accumulated around 44,000 BTC over the same period. Still, overall demand remained negative, with sales from other participants overwhelming these approaches.
The pressure is most visible among large owners, CryptoQuant wrote in a recent report. Wallets with 1,000 to 10,000 BTC have turned to net distribution, with their one-year balance change falling to around negative 188,000 BTC from a positive 200,000 BTC at the 2024 cycle peak. Mid-caps have also slowed accumulation sharply, while Coinbase Premium has remained negative, signaling weak US spot demand.
The result is a market where increasing institutional activity does not translate into stronger price support. As more capital moves toward ETF wrappers and regulated futures markets, bitcoin is increasingly priced through macro-sensitive positioning such as hedging and allocation shifts rather than broad-based spot accumulation.
That positioning is now being tested by inflation data, Enflux wrote. The ISM price index jumped to 78.3 in March, the highest since June 2022, undermining expectations of near-term rate cuts. Enflux said the repricing has already begun to show in flows, with $296 million in net ETF outflows in the week of March 24 and subdued inflows in early April.
The long weekend removes a key stabilizer. With the CME closed and ETF creation and redemption paused, the institutional bidding that has increasingly anchored bitcoin’s price will be largely absent, leaving trading to spot markets where selling pressure has been most persistent.
CryptoQuant said any relief rally could face resistance between around $71,500 and $81,200, levels that have capped previous pullbacks in the current bear market structure.
The broader test comes with US inflation data on April 9. If core PCE in March exceeds February’s 3.1%, interest rate cut expectations could fade further, strengthening the bearish case in bitcoin.
