The crypto market continued to show signs of choppy Friday with bitcoin trading at $67,000 in the middle of a trading range that stretches back to early February.
A selection of altcoins rallied during the lower liquidity hours in Asia, with the likes of ALGO and RENDER posting double-digit gains over the past 24 hours.
But the wider picture remains the same; the crypto market is trading in a macro downtrend dating back to October, characterized by a series of lower highs and lower lows.
U.S. stocks traded flat on Friday as volatility continued to ease since Donald Trump’s comments on a potential end to the war in Iran on Monday.
Brent crude is trading at $109 per barrel. barrel, indicating that an end to the war may not be as close as some analysts predict.
Derivative positioning
- Futures markets for Bitcoin and Ethereum remained muted, with the extended holiday weekend keeping trading volume thin. Open interest in both assets was largely unchanged over the past 24 hours.
- Open interest in Solana futures has risen to over 65 million SOL, the highest level since February 7. The increase combined with negative funding rates and an OI-adjusted cumulative volume delta suggests that traders are increasingly positioning to the downside, with short sellers showing greater conviction.
- Similar bearish market dynamics are present in TRX and BCH.
- OI in privacy-focused Zcash (ZEC) futures has stabilized near 1.70 million ZEC for the third day in a row. ZEC’s CVD is also the highest among the majors. This combination suggests a persistent positioning with strong directional conviction, likely driven by aggressive buying pressure.
- Bitcoin’s 30-day implied volatility index has fallen to 51.28%, the lowest since February The market is showing no signs of panic whatsoever despite geopolitical concerns and energy market volatility.
- Ether’s volatility index has fallen to 72.55%, the lowest since February 26.
- On Deribit, bitcoin and ether puts continue to trade more expensive than calls, indicating a bias for downside protection.
- Glassnode said the dealer’s gamma exposure below $68,000, all the way down to $50,000, is negative. This means traders could sell in a falling market to hedge their exposure, increasing downside volatility.
Token talk
- The altcoin market has been relatively resilient to crypto’s choppy behavior this week, with certain parts of the market outperforming bitcoin and crypto majors, especially DeFi and AI tokens.
- The DeFi Select Index (DFX) is up 1.3% since midnight UTC, while the CoinDesk Computing Select Index (CPUS) is up 1.5%, beating bitcoin-heavy benchmarks like the CoinDesk 20 (CD20), which is up just 0.16% on Friday.
- The yield of certain altcoins is symptomatic of a consolidating market. When bitcoin and the majors trade flat, traders often speculate in lower-liquidity altcoins. That speculation typically grinds to a halt when bitcoin is back and determines the next big market move.
