View of Sukkur Barrage, formerly known as Lloyd Barrage, as floodwaters pass through following monsoon rains and rising levels of the Indus River in Sukkur, Sindh province. Photo: REUTERS
ISLAMABAD:
Pakistan’s Indus River System Authority (IRSA) has approved a projected water shortage of up to 15 percent for early Kharif 2026, while setting the province’s water withdrawal at 67.451 million acre-feet (MAF), as officials warned of continued supply pressure despite improved reservoir storage.
The decision was taken at a meeting of the IRSA Advisory Committee on Tuesday, chaired by IRSA Chairman Amjad Saeed, to finalize water availability criteria for the Kharif season (April-September).
Officials said the Rim-Station inflow is expected to be 103.30 MAF, including 24.48 MAF for Early Kharif and 78.81 MAF for Late Kharif.
The committee approved a shortfall of 15 per cent. for early Kharif (April to June 10), subject to revision in the first week of May 2026.
The deficiency in Late Kharif was approved at 5%.
Provincial allocations include Punjab at 33,357 MAF, Sindh 30,403 MAF, Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (CRBC) 0,823 MAF and Balochistan 2,868 MAF, compared to last year’s total consumption of 60,558 MAF and a 10-year average of 25 MAF.
The committee noted that Rabi 2025-26 (Oct-March) inflow stood at 21,782 MAF, slightly below the expected 22,016 MAF, reflecting a shortfall of 1 per cent. However, system storage stood at 2,307 MAF on March 31, significantly higher than 0,384 MAF last year and the 10-year average of 1,351 MAF.
The Pakistan Meteorological Department forecast normal to above-normal rainfall from April to June, especially in the western and northern regions, but warned that temperatures would remain above normal nationwide.
IRSA also raised the alarm over declining storage at Tarbela Dam, where live capacity has fallen from 5,827 MAF in May 2022 to 5,580 MAF in March 2026, an overall reduction of almost 48 per cent. due to sedimentation. Officials directed WAPDA to submit a detailed mitigation plan.
The committee approved operational timelines for Tarbela’s T4 hydropower plant expected to become operational after May 7, while stressing close coordination to deal with reservoir constraints during ongoing construction at the T5 project.
