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When Korn’s “Blind” blares from Petco Park’s speakers in the top of the ninth inning, the San Diego Padres’ opponent knows the game is over because Mason Miller enters the game.
The lights around the ballpark flash on and off as the music blares, moments before Miller turns off the lights in case the unlucky players meet him.
The 27-year-old Pittsburgh native has been a different kind of dominant so far this season. In 11 games, he has a 1-0 record with a 0.00 ERA, recording eight saves in 11.1 innings. He has allowed just four baserunners to start the season, yielding just two singles and two walks.
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San Diego Padres relief pitcher Mason Miller throws a pitch during the ninth inning against the Seattle Mariners at Petco Park in San Diego, California on April 16, 2026. (David Frerker/Imagn Images)
What makes Miller’s scoreless start to the season even more impressive? He has faced 38 batters and struck out 27 of them, good for an otherworldly 71.1% strikeout percentage. He is averaging 21.4 strikeouts per inning. nine innings.
But even if Miller continues his video game-like start to the season, does he have a realistic shot at winning the Cy Young? Highly unlikely.
The Padres closer currently has the fifth-shortest odds to win the NL Cy Young, according to Draftkings.
- Pittsburgh Pirates’ Paul Skenes – +260
- Los Angeles Dodgers’ Yoshinobu Yamamoto – +380
- Philadelphia Phillies’ Christopher Sánchez – +550
- Atlanta Braves’ Chris Sale – +950
- Miller – +1500
So what does Miller need to do to have a shot at winning the NL Cy Young? Something not seen before.
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San Diego Padres relief pitcher Mason Miller celebrates with catcher Luis Campusano after defeating the Seattle Mariners at Petco Park in San Diego, California on April 16, 2026. (David Frerker/Imagn Images)
First, let’s look back at the previous nine relievers who won the Cy Young Award.
Mike Marshall, Dodgers, 1974
Sparky Lyle, New York Yankees, 1977
Bruce Sutter, Chicago Cubs, 1979
Rollie Fingers, Milwaukee Brewers, 1981
Willie Hernandez, Detroit Tigers, 1984
Steve Bedrosian, Philadelphia Phillies, 1987
Mark Davis, Padres, 1989
Dennis Eckersley, for the then-Oakland Athletics, 1992
Eric Gagné, Dodgers, 2003
We can safely rule out Marshall (208 innings pitched), Lyle (137 innings pitched), Sutter (101.1 innings pitched) and Hernandez (140.1 innings pitched) as comparisons because Miller won’t pitch nearly as many innings this season. Miller is on pace to throw about 81 innings this season.
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San Diego Padres relief pitcher Mason Miller reacts after defeating the Los Angeles Angels in the bottom of the ninth inning in Anaheim, California, on April 18, 2026. (Caroline Brehman/AP Photo)
Miller’s projected 81 innings falls in line with the other five relievers. Fingers threw 78 innings, Bedrosian threw 89, Davis threw 92.2, Eckersley threw 80, and Gagne threw 82.1.
Bedrosian had a 2.83 ERA on the year, but Miller will have to pitch better than that to win the award. Paul Skenes, who won the NL Cy Young in 2025, was 10-10 with a 1.97 ERA in 187.2 innings in 32 starts.
Skenes, the odds-on favorite at the time of writing, currently has a 3-1 record in five starts with a 3.27 ERA in 22 innings. His ERA is inflated because he allowed five runs and recorded just two outs against the New York Mets on Opening Day. In the four starts since, he has allowed just three runs.
So let’s take a closer look at the Davis, Eckersley and Gagné cases.
In 62 games, Davis had a 4-3 record, 44 saves and a 1.85 ERA with 92 strikeouts in 92.2 innings.
In 69 games, Eckersley had a 7-1 record, 51 saves and a 1.91 ERA with 93 strikeouts in 80 innings.
In 77 games, Gagné had a 2-3 record with 55 saves and a 1.20 ERA with 137 strikeouts in 82.1 innings.
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San Diego Padres relief pitcher Mason Miller reacts after pitching in the ninth inning against the Colorado Rockies at Petco Park in San Diego, California on April 9, 2026. (Denis Poroy/Imagn Images)
All of these seasons are incredible, but if they happened in 2026, they probably wouldn’t win the Cy Young. Baseball has changed too much since they won.
The two main differences between eras are the innings that starting pitchers throw and the amount of elite relievers in today’s game.
In 2003, 20 pitchers threw over 200 innings. Last season, only four pitchers threw over 200 innings, making starting pitchers who are both a) capable of throwing 185-200 innings and b) with a high one and low two ERA more valuable today than they were then.
Combine that with multiple relievers coming out of the bullpen and firing 100+ mph fastballs with wipeout off-speed stuff, it doesn’t make Miller as much of an outlier as he would have been 25 years ago. No reliever dominates quite like he does this season, but many aren’t that far off.
St. Louis Cardinals closer Riley O’Brien has a 0.00 ERA in 12 games with six saves in 12.1 innings with 14 strikeouts.
Voters are not as taken to a closer dominant today as they might have been two to three decades ago when not as many people did.
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San Diego Padres relief pitcher Mason Miller throws a pitch during the ninth inning against the Seattle Mariners at Petco Park in San Diego, California on April 16, 2026. (David Frerker/Imagn Images)
Unfortunately for Miller, he may become another star closer who falls victim to a new era of baseball in the Cy Young voting.
Since 2016, only two relievers have finished higher than fourth in the Cy Young voting: Baltimore Orioles relief ace Zach Britton (4th) and Cleveland Guardians star closer Emmanuel Clase (3rd).
In 2016, in 69 games, Britton had a 2-1 record with a 0.54 ERA with 47 saves, striking out 74 batters in 67 innings. A whopping 79% of the balls put into play against him were groundballs. Still, he finished fourth.
Boston Red Sox starter Rick Porcello instead won the Cy Young that season. He went 22-4 with a 3.15 ERA in 223 innings.
In 2024, in 74 games, Clase had a 0.61 ERA with 47 saves while striking out 66 batters in 74.1 innings.
Detroit Tigers starter Tarik Skubal won the Cy Young that season instead. He went 18-4 with a 2.39 ERA in 192 innings. Kansas City Royals starter Seth Lugo finished second going 16-9 with a 3.00 ERA in 206.2 innings.
Reliever dominance is not valued in the same way in today’s game as it was back then.
Aroldis Chapman had a 1.17 ERA and 32 saves for the Boston Red Sox last season in 67 games, finishing seventh.
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San Diego Padres pitcher Mason Miller pitches to a Colorado Rockies batter during the ninth inning of a baseball game in San Diego, California, on April 9, 2026. (Photo Gregory Bull/AP)
This doesn’t mean Miller can’t win the award, but he has a big uphill climb.
While he’s not likely to strike out 71.1% of the batters he faces over the course of the season and will eventually give up some runs, he may need to strike out batters at a historic rate while also leading the National League in saves to keep voters’ attention throughout the season.
This isn’t to say voters are blind to relievers’ dominant seasons over the past decade, but recent history shows that hitters may have a better chance of getting on base against Miller than Miller has at winning the Cy Young Award.
