Bitcoin is breaking out of the Iran headline.
The cryptocurrency topped $78,000 on Wednesday morning, up 2.2% in 24 hours and 4.3% on the week, after President Donald Trump said he would extend the Iran ceasefire indefinitely and Strategy revealed the purchase of 34,164 BTC for $2.54 billion.
Ether rose 2.1% to $2,366, BNB rose 1.3% to $640, and Solana rose 1.8% to $87. The only red in the top 10 was a trickle of 0.1% decline in stablecoins and Tron.
S&P 500 futures rose 0.5% and Nasdaq 100 futures rose 0.6% after Trump’s extension, although the underlying benchmarks closed lower on Tuesday as talks briefly faltered. Brent crude hovered near $98 a barrel. barrel. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index fell 0.7% as investors weighed how long the Middle East conflict would last.
Trump blamed the negotiation collapse on what he called a “severely broken” leadership structure in Tehran and said the US would hold off on new attacks while maintaining its blockade of the Strait of Hormuz.
The strategy’s purchase is the largest bitcoin purchase by the company since November 2024. The purchase of 34,164 BTC at an average of $74,395 per coin brings the company’s holdings to 815,061 BTC, bought for $61.6 billion at an average price of $75,527. With bitcoin at $77,541, the position is now modestly in profit for the first time in months.
Spot flows the momentum back. Global crypto funds pulled in $1.4 billion last week, according to CoinShares, the strongest week of inflows since mid-January. Bitcoin took $1.12 billion, Ethereum $328 million, Chainlink $5 million and Sui $2 million. XRP saw $56 million in outflows and Solana $2 million, despite both trading higher on price.
Two structural signals point in the same direction. Bitcoin is now holding above the realized price for short-term holders of around $69,400 per analyst Darkfost, the level where recent buyers are sitting on gains rather than losses, historically reducing the odds of a cascading liquidation if sentiment turns.
Separately, a Nomura survey found that 65% of Japanese institutional investors now have bitcoin for portfolio diversification, with 31% positive about the market outlook and most planning 2% to 5% allocations over the next three years.
Whether bitcoin can hold $77,000 through the European session depends on how markets price the extension of the ceasefire against the continued disruption of the Strait of Hormuz.
A clean break above $80,000 would confirm that the 46-day funding rate compression is becoming a short squeeze. A reversal below $75,000 would mean that the truce extension is already priced in and the rally needs a fresh catalyst.
