Bitcoin is approaching a pivotal moment as it tests two closely aligned resistance levels on the chain after about 75 days of sideways consolidation since its local bottom on February 6 at $60,000 as bitcoin climbs above $78,000.
The first metric is the true market average, which currently stands at $78,200. This metric, tracked by Checkonchain, reflects the average acquisition cost of actively circulating supply, excluding lost or dormant coins. It effectively captures the total cost base of engaged market participants.
The True Market Mean filters out lost, dormant and economically inactive coins, leaving only the cost basis of participants actually present in the market, making it a more accurate measure of where the real selling pressure lies.
Just above, the short-term holder’s realized price (STHRP) is $79,200, according to checkonchain. This cohort, defined as investors holding coins for less than 155 days, tends to be more reactive to price fluctuations. With spot prices below their average entry, these participants are left with a small loss. Bitcoin tested the STHRP in mid-January around $98,000 and was rejected.
A sustained move above this zone could move both levels to support, strengthening bullish momentum. Conversely, failure to reclaim them could prolong bitcoin’s consolidation phase with potential downsides.
