Roundhill Investments is poised to launch the first US exchange-traded funds (ETFs) linked to prediction markets next week, with two other asset managers preparing similar products.
According to a filing with the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), Roundhill will list six funds linked to whether Democrats or Republicans control the White House, Senate and House.
The launch is set for May 5, according to Bloomberg ETF analyst James Seyffart.
The funds are Roundhill Democratic President ETF (BLUP), Republican President ETF (REDP), Democratic Senate ETF (BLUS), Republican Senate ETF (REDS), Democratic House ETF (BLUH) and Republican House ETF (REDH).
The House and Senate products are tied for who controls them after the November 3, 2026 election, while the presidential products point to the November 7, 2028 race.
The Funds obtain exposure through swap agreements that refer to binary event contracts traded on CFTC regulated markets. These contracts are set at $1 if an outcome occurs and $0 if it does not.
The prospectus warns in capital letters that if the targeted party does not win, “the fund will lose substantially all of its value.”
Roundhill will not terminate the funds after settlement. When the market prices a winner above $0.995 or below $0.005 for five consecutive trading days, the fund treats the result as decided and rolls into the next cycle, the 2028 House and Senate exposure for the midterm funds and the 2032 presidential race for BLUP and REDP.
The prospectus notes that if the market later turns out to be wrong, “there will be no recourse” for shareholders.
Bitwise and GraniteShares filed identical six-fund slates in February, with Bitwise using a “PredictionShares” tag. Their structures differ, as Bitwise’s funds cease shortly after each result is determined, while GraniteShares, like Roundhill, rolls into the next election.
Political event contracts are already traded on prediction markets such as Polymarket and Kalshi, but wrapping them in ETFs could expand access by allowing them to be held in regular brokerage accounts and some retirement accounts.
The push comes after the CFTC withdrew a Biden-era proposal in February that would have banned contracts on political events, although state regulators in Massachusetts, New York, Nevada and elsewhere continue to challenge the underlying contracts in court.
Roundhill has also filed for a list of non-political prediction market ETFs tied to whether the U.S. will enter a recession, according to a filing flagged by Bloomberg ETF analyst Eric Balchunas.
