76ers v. Celtics Game 7 picks, predictions, best bets and spread

The back is against the wall. It’s do or die. Win or go home. Anything can happen. Whatever your favorite little saying is for a Game 7 applies here. The Philadelphia 76ers, a team that barely made it into the postseason, have pushed the No. 2 Boston Celtics to the brink of elimination. It’s Game 7, so we’ll bet on it; those are the rules.

Philadelphia has already won two games in Boston, and now they need to take three of four in the series to advance. In the last two games, the 76ers have looked great. They have held the Celtics to just 97 points in Game 5 and 93 points in Game 6.

In fact, in all three of their wins, the 76ers have held the Celtics to under 100 points. They’re not exactly known for their defense, but it certainly seems like that’s where their success is this postseason.

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On offense, the team looks very crisp. Tyrese Maxey has been able to get to his spots and has shot the ball very well in this series. VJ Edgecombe has looked like a veteran instead of a rookie. The return of Joel Embiid has been a shot in the arm for the squad and Paul George has been very effective.

I wouldn’t say Philadelphia has been overly great from deep, which is actually a very good indicator that they can win Game 7.

The Celtics, in the losses, have obviously shot poorly, but it is very surprising how bad it has been. They shot just 29% from deep in Game 6 and their free throws were just 9-for-16. Jaylen Brown, usually very reliable, went just 2-for-6 from the charity stripe. The Celtics starters combined for just 46 points. Most of these games have been very one-sided, with the winning team dominating. Only one game was decided by 10 points or fewer.

Jaylen Brown of the Boston Celtics reacts after defeating the Miami Heat 104-103 in Game 6 of the Eastern Conference Finals at the Kaseya Center in Miami, Fla., on May 27, 2023. (Mike Ehrmann/Getty Images)

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Boston is one of those teams that tends to live and die by the three, and unfortunately for their fans, they’ve been dying the last two games. You’d like to assume that returning home would give them a chance to return to some familiar lines of sight.

In addition, it is not normal for the team to fight like this for such a long time. The key to their success may not be Brown or Jayson Tatum, but may lie with Derrick White, who has underperformed in this series. He looked a bit better in the Game 6 loss, scoring 11 points, shooting 50% from deep and recording three steals.

There are two ways to this game and I think the spread and total are extremely correlated in this game. First, in order for the 76ers to win the game, they need to hold the Celtics’ scoring in check again. Keeping Boston under 100 points again seems like a big challenge. But if this game goes down, the 76ers will cover the spread.

A general view of TD Garden before the game between the Philadelphia 76ers and the Boston Celtics during Round 2 Game 1 of the 2023 NBA Playoffs on May 1, 2023 in Boston, Mass. (David Dow/NBAE/Getty Images)

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If the game goes over, the Celtics will win and I’m guessing it will be a blowout game. Boston has the ability to destroy teams. The Celtics have played in four Game 7s since 2022. They crushed the Bucks 109-81, beat the Heat 100-96, dominated the 76ers 112-88 and lost the most recent one to the Heat in 2023, 103-84. The Celtics went 3-1 with two dominant wins.

The lone loss was ugly and at the home of the Heat. It’s hard to believe the Celtics will lose three of four at home, but the 76ers look good. I’m laying off the spread, but I think the Celtics are covering. I also think this game is over. 206.5 is too low of a total and I expect at least one of these teams to get to 110 points.

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