NEWYou can now listen to Pakinomist articles!
It hasn’t been a great stretch of baseball for me over the past few days. Sometimes the appearance is correct but the results are wrong. Of course, it’s easy to say that looks are wrong if you have a lost ticket, and there’s a lot of truth to that.
Yesterday, the Philadelphia Phillies won the first five innings 1-0. I expected Aaron Nola to be worse, but he hit well, so my play on the Miami Marlins was a loss, but it wasn’t a terrible look. Today I hope we can get back on track with the Toronto Blue Jays taking on the Tampa Bay Rays.
Yandy Díaz of the Tampa Bay Rays looks on between innings against the Oakland Athletics at the Oakland Coliseum in Oakland, California on August 20, 2024. (Lachlan Cunningham/Getty Images)
The Blue Jays were inches, minutes, outs, whatever description you wanted to use, away from winning the World Series last year. This season they look like they will fight to even make the playoffs.
CLICK HERE FOR MORE SPORTS COVERAGE ON Pakinomist
They are currently three games under .500, which is a rough look considering they are in one of the toughest divisions in baseball. Is it a World Series hangover, or is it something worse for the team? The pitching staff looks a little rough, pitching to a 4.27 ERA and a 1.30 WHIP.
One of their better starters takes the mound tonight as the Rays turn to Kevin Gausman. For the year, Gausman is 2-2 with a 3.10 ERA and a 0.96 WHIP. He has made three road starts this season, with only one of them being a quality outing. He has allowed nine earned runs over 16.2 innings. The Rays have been very strong against the Blue Jays right-hander in the past. In 74 at-bats against Gausman, they are hitting .351. However, they only have four extra-base hits against him.
Tampa Bay is one of those teams that finds ways to win no matter who is on their roster. I have to say I’m a little shocked at how good the team looks through the first part of the year. They are 22-12 with one of the best records in baseball. At home, they are 12-4, looking like one of the most dominant teams in the sport. As a team, they are hitting .253 and the pitching staff is pitching to a 3.67 ERA and a 1.20 WHIP.
ZERO BS. JUST DAKICH. TAKE THE DON’T @ ME PODCAST ON THE ROAD. DOWNLOAD NOW!
Drew Rasmussen of the Tampa Bay Rays throws a pitch during the first inning against the Baltimore Orioles at Tropicana Field in St. Petersburg, Fla., on August 14, 2022. (Douglas P. DeFelice/Getty Images)
Drew Rasmussen is looking to position them for another win. For the season, the righty is 2-1 with a 2.64 ERA and a 0.85 WHIP. He has made two home starts this year and has gone six innings in both of them. He has allowed a total of six hits, one walk and one earned run over the 12 innings. Blue Jays hitters haven’t been great against him, batting just .200 overall, but they have five extra-base hits out of their 12 hits. This means that when they make contact, they hit the ball hard.
There are a few things that stand out to me here. First, I think the Rays have the upper hand in this game and should grab the win. With a -130 line for the Rays, I think we still have value and I’ll take them to win. Rasmussen has been very strong. Gausman holds this line closer, but the Blue Jays have been terrible on the road and the Rays have been strong at home.
CLICK HERE TO DOWNLOAD THE Pakinomist APP
Kevin Gausman pitches for the Toronto Blue Jays during the first inning against the Los Angeles Dodgers at the Rogers Center in Toronto, Ont., April 7, 2026. (Cole Burston/Getty Images)
Another game worth spending a little money on is a prop. Yandy Diaz has been excellent against Gausman. While he doesn’t have a ton of extra-base hits against him, he has a .583 average against him in 12 at-bats. I like him getting 2+ total bases at +120.
For more information on sports betting and gambling, follow David on X/Twitter: @futureprez2024
