Bitcoin (BTC) price holds below $81,000 with Trump-Xi talks on horizon

Bitcoin BTC$80,600.68a leading indicator of risk sentiment, remains a paragon of stability ahead of President Donald Trump’s arrival in Beijing for talks with his Chinese counterpart, Xi Jinping.

The major cryptocurrency recently traded 0.5% higher since midnight UTC at $80,900, in line with gains by the CoinDesk 5 Index (CD5). All five members of the index moved on. The broader CoinDesk 20 Index (CD20) rose 1.3%, while the CoinDesk 80 (CD80) was little changed, indicating a particular focus on the largest tokens.

The Trump-Xi talks are likely to cover tariffs, rare earth supply chains and the Middle East. Any positive result, even a token one on paper, can improve overall market sentiment and support risk assets

Ether (ETH) added 1.3% since midnight to $2,300 after the Ethereum Foundation published “Clear Signing,” a new standard designed to prevent users from unknowingly authorizing malicious crypto transactions.

Among altcoins, Injective blockchain’s INJ token rose as much as 24%, the most since February 19, along with 5% gains in Polkadot’s DOT and TRUMP memecoin.

Derivative positioning

• BNB futures open interest (OI) rose to 6.15 million tokens, an increase of over 5% in 24 hours and the highest since April 3rd. The move points to new capital inflows.
• ZEC’s OI growth is the largest among the major cryptocurrencies. Its 24-hour cumulative volume delta (CVD) is also positive and the highest among the majors.
• It is also a sign of new money flowing into the market, with traders buying via market orders rather than passive limit orders, signaling strong bullish sentiment.
• Still, the BNB market does not look overheated. Funding ratios remain below 10% on an annual basis, a sign of healthy bullish conditions without excessive leverage. Its market capitalization has risen to $92.2 billion, the highest since March 18, reflecting renewed investor interest.
• OI in DOGE is up 5.75% to 15.38 billion tokens and its price chart points to a bullish crossover of the much-tracked 50- and 100-day simple moving averages. The token was trading 4% higher at 11 cents at the time of writing. The other key metrics show a BNB-like bullish setup, suggesting improved speculative demand.
• Another standout is ether (ETH), the second largest token by market capitalization. OI in ether futures topped 15 million ETH, approaching last July’s record of 15.30 million.
• The increasing demand for leverage, combined with the relentless tightening of Bollinger Bands, suggests the possibility of a volatility boom.
• OI in bitcoin has remained largely unchanged near 740K BTC in the last 24 hours, indicating relatively stable positioning in bitcoin compared to altcoins.
• Overall, most tokens except BNB, XRP and TRX have negative 24-hour CVDs, meaning the altcoin market is dominated by sellers shorting via market orders rather than passive limit orders. It signals continued caution amid broader market strength.
• While macro risks are piling up in the form of high inflation and hardened bond yields across the advanced world, the market remains calm. This is evident from the continued decline in bitcoin and ether’s 30-day implied volatility indices. Ether’s EVIV index hit new year-to-date lows below 55%, while BVIV remains pegged near 40%, levels last seen in late January.
• The muted volatility environment suggests that traders are not yet pricing in more near-term turbulence.
• In the options market on Deribit, call options with higher strikes continue to dominate volume rankings. Call represents a bullish bet on the underlying BTC.
• In terms of block flows, put spreads and straddles emerged as preferred strategies over the past 24 hours, indicating that traders are positioning for both downside protection and a potential volatility extension.

Token Talk

• The DeFi United initiative looks to restore trust in decentralized financial ecosystems with the tokens of Aave AAVE$98.65Arbitrum (ARB) and Lido (LDO) recovering over the past week.
• AAVE increased 3%, ARB increased 16% and LDO increased 11% over seven days. ARB’s move stands out after the Kelp DAO exploit, which hit the Arbitrum lending markets and left wrapped ether stranded across chains.
• The April 18 attack released unsupported rsETH through Kelp’s LayerZero OFT bridge. Aave’s incident report attributed the path to a spoofed LayerZero packet and a single-DVN configuration, while LayerZero linked the attack to North Korea’s Lazarus Group. It triggered a widespread recovery effort.
• Phase 1 of this recovery is now complete. The attacker’s rsETH on Arbitrum was burned, removing the unsupported supply, and Aave V3 positions linked to the exploiter were forcibly liquidated.
• The 117,132 rsETH, worth about $278 million, will be gradually replenished in the LayerZero bridge adapter over the next two weeks. Withdrawals are expected to resume within 24 hours of the first tranche.
• A separate legal process is underway for 30,765 ETH, about $71 million, frozen by Arbitrum’s Security Council. A US federal court approved an arbitrum vote to move the funds to an Aave-controlled wallet while keeping the recovered ETH under court restrictions.