The White House Regulatory Audit Office is examining a proposed Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) rule on prediction markets, according to a federal filing that could shape how platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket operate across the U.S.
A RegInfo.gov filing shows the proposal was received by the Office of Information and Regulatory Affairs on May 26 under Executive Order 12866, triggering a review of what the CFTC describes as a proposed rule on “Prediction Markets.” The submission does not include the text of the proposed rule.
The move marks one of the clearest signs yet that the CFTC is preparing a broader federal framework for event contracts after months of legal and political battles over sports and election markets.
Illinois, New Jersey and other states have argued that sports-related event contracts effectively operate as online betting markets. Kalshi and the CFTC have countered that designated contract markets regulated under federal commodity law fall under the agency’s exclusive authority.
The executive order governs how major federal regulations are vetted before publication, requiring agencies to submit significant regulations for economic and policy analysis. OIRA, a division within the Office of Management and Budget, oversees the process.
The timing comes days after President Donald Trump publicly backed the CFTC’s authority over prediction markets, as CoinDesk previously reported, calling it “critically important” that the agency retain “exclusive authority” over the sector in a Truth Social post.
The proposal follows a March advance notice of proposed rulemaking in which the CFTC sought public comment on which predictive market contracts could be prohibited as “contrary to the public interest,” including contracts tied to elections, gambling and sports.
