Bitcoin stabilizing near $73,500, about 10% below its monthly high of $81,000. Data suggests the stall reflects a lack of new buyers rather than an abundance of sellers.
Risk assets rose broadly after reports that talks between the US and Iran could reopen the Strait of Hormuz, a vital oil passage, lifted sentiment.
“Expectations of a de-escalation in geopolitical tensions and the normalization of the Strait of Hormuz reduce pressure on oil prices,” analysts at Spanish lender Bankinter wrote in a market note.
Against that supporting backdrop, bitcoin’s weakness looks crypto-specific. Long-term holder supply has hit a record 15.8 million BTC, according to CryptoQuant, usually a bullish signal because it reflects coins held rather than traded. The firm argued that the record may be hollow, reflecting slowing market turnover rather than conviction.
Short-term holder supply is down about 2.2 million BTC since December. That includes about 900,000 BTC of Coinbase reserves that crossed the threshold of 155-day long-term owners by sitting still. The plate is partly an artifact of inactivity, not fresh purchases.
Demand from spot bitcoin ETFs, a key driver of the past two years’ rally, has cooled. Glassnode said inflows and spot demand remain too weak to sustain a move above cost basis levels near $78,000. Net outflows from ETFs hit a nine-day record high on Thursday.
Glassnode’s realized P/L ratio is 1.56, below levels typical of stronger bull markets. At Polymarket, traders assign a high probability that bitcoin will close the month between $72,000 and $76,000. Pay attention!
Read more: For analysis of today’s activity in altcoins and derivatives, see Crypto Markets Today. For a comprehensive list of events this week, see CoinDesk’s “Crypto Week Ahead.”
What is trending
Today’s signal
The ratio of altcoins (excluding the top 10) to bitcoin is currently just above its 50-week exponential moving average, a sign of strength against the largest cryptocurrency.
If the ratio ends the week above this level, the next resistance is a 20% gain against bitcoin, which would indicate sustained momentum across the broader altcoin universe.
