Warns of intensified heat waves, water shortages and agricultural challenges likely over three-month period
LAHORE:
Below normal and above normal rainfall has been predicted over most parts of the country during June and the coming three-month period, according to the Pakistan Meteorological Department (PMD).
According to the Met Department, the El Nino phase has re-emerged in the Pacific Ocean and is expected to continue in the coming months, while the Dipole in the Indian Ocean remains neutral. These climatic conditions may result in the uneven spatial distribution of rainfall over Pakistan.
According to the outlook reports and Director of Meteorology Lahore Aleemul Hassan, intensified heat waves, water scarcity and increased challenges for agriculture may occur during the three-month period.
The country received an average of 22.4 millimeters of rainfall in May 2026, about 10% below normal levels. Meanwhile, the average temperature for the month was 29.2 degrees Celsius, which was 0.8 degrees above the long-term average.
In Punjab, 29.7 millimeters of rainfall was recorded during May, which was 19% above normal, while Sindh recorded only 0.3 millimeters, marking a deficit of 91%. Balochistan remained 71% below normal while Gilgit-Baltistan (GB) recorded 33% above normal rainfall.
In its monthly outlook for June 2026, the PMD said rainfall is likely to remain near normal to slightly below normal in most parts of the country. The biggest deficits in rainfall were expected in northeast Punjab, Kashmir and adjoining areas of Khyber-Pakhtunkhwa (KP).
In contrast, GB and upper KP would likely receive slightly above normal rainfall during June, according to the monthly outlook.
Read: Lahore weather becomes pleasant after rain, hailstorm in several areas
Temperatures, meanwhile, were expected to remain above normal nationally during the month of June, with the warming trend likely to be more pronounced in GB, Kashmir and north KP. Heatwave conditions may also intensify over the plains of southern Punjab, Sindh and Balochistan.
According to PMD’s seasonal assessment, Pakistan received 148 millimeters of rainfall during March-May 2026, which was 26% above normal. The average temperature, meanwhile, remained 1 degree Celsius above the long-term average.
During this period, Punjab recorded 31% above normal rainfall while the same in Sindh was 106% above normal.
In the period from June to August, however, the weather pattern was expected to change. According to the Met department, below normal rainfall was likely to continue in most parts of Punjab, Sindh, lower KP and Balochistan.
Northern areas, on the other hand, especially GB, Northern KP and Kashmir, may receive normal to above-normal rainfall. Northeast Punjab was expected to experience the largest rainfall deficit during the period.
Read more: El Nino warming to return by mid-2026: UN
Regarding the impact that the expected weather may have on the agriculture sector, the PMD warned that reduced rainfall may adversely affect the sowing of Kharif crops as well as early crop development. However, the requirement for irrigation may increase.
At the same time, higher precipitation in the northern regions, combined with accelerated snowmelt, may increase the risk of glacial outburst floods (GLOF), flash floods and landslides.
The outlook report for the three-month period also noted that prolonged heat, intermittent rainfall and increased humidity levels could also increase the risk of vector-borne diseases, including dengue. Sharp temperature gradients can also trigger dust storms, strong winds and hailstorms, potentially damaging crops, orchards and infrastructure.
The Met department advised farmers to consult weather advisories before taking decisions regarding irrigation and harvesting. It also urged the public to exercise caution during periods of extreme heat, rainfall events and travel to mountainous areas.
