Bitcoin is trading near a level it has usually only reached late in bear markets, and it has held there even after the hottest US inflationary pressure in three years.
Checkonchain data shows that BTC fell close to its 200-week moving average, a rough four-year trend line that long-term owners have been watching. The model places bitcoin in the bottom 10% of its historical valuation range, a zone that has only appeared in the deepest parts of previous bear markets.
Bear market bottoms are a process, not an event.
First, price-sensitive investors capitulate. Then comes the harder phase: months of sideways action that slowly erodes the conviction of those who remain.
In our latest newsletter, @_Checkmatey_ examines the evidence… pic.twitter.com/ReSQFfqi5R
— _Checkonchain (@_checkonchain) June 10, 2026
The mood in the market is just as washed out. The Crypto Fear and Greed Index — a measure of sentiment calculated using volatility, social media and market volumes — stands at 9, deep in extreme fear, down from 11 last week and 48 a month ago.
These readings usually appear when price sensitive sellers have already done most of their selling. Checkonchain still warns that bottoms are a process where capitulation comes first, followed by months of sideways trading that grinds out the holders who stayed.
Bitcoin briefly broke below $60,000 this week for the first time since 2024, changing hands at $62,623 on Thursday, up 1.9% on the day but lower for the week, with a record run of ETF outflows still pulling money out.
The rejection was broad but shallow. Ether rose 1.4% to $1,651, BNB added 1.3% to $595, solana gained 0.9% to $65 and dogecoin 1.1% to $0.085. XRP was the laggard, down 0.3% to $1.12. All remain lower over the past seven days, led by ether at 6.5% and XRP at 7.5%. Thursday’s advance bulks the weekly slide rather than reversing it.
Inflation does not help the case for a rapid recovery. U.S. consumer prices rose 0.5% in May from April and 4.2% from a year earlier, the fastest annual pace since early 2023 as the Iran war pushed up energy costs, according to Bureau of Labor Statistics data released Wednesday.
The core measure, which strips out food and energy, rose 0.2%, less than economists expected, the one soft spot in an otherwise hot report.
“Hopes for US regulatory clarity have faded again, with Polymarket odds of the Clarity Act passing in 2026 falling from 62% to 48% this week,” Yves Renno, head of trading at global crypto payments platform Wirex, told CoinDesk.
“All eyes now turn to the FOMC on June 16-17, and Warsh’s tone will determine whether Bitcoin bounces towards $68-72K or breaks below $60K entirely.”
Meanwhile, the pressure extends well beyond crypto. Global shares fell to a more than one-month low this week as a technology-driven sell-off deepened and US forces struck more targets in Iran, collapsing a ceasefire that had held since April.
MSCI’s All Country World Index, the broadest measure of global shares, fell to its lowest since May 5, and its Asia-Pacific benchmark fell 0.8% to a three-week low. Brent crude rose 1.8% to around $95 a barrel. barrel. The European Central Bank is expected to raise interest rates later on Thursday for the first time since September 2023, with bond traders pricing in higher borrowing costs worldwide.
