Elon Musk’s SpaceX will price its Friday IPO on the Nasdaq later today. While the company is currently valued at around $1.77 trillion, blockchain-based pre-IPO price discovery derivatives and prediction markets seem to think it’s too low.
This gap is evident from three markets: Onchain perpetuals futures offered by Ventuals and trade.xyz, both of which run on Hyperliquid, and Polymarket’s implied first-day close. These have all converged to the $1.8 trillion-$2.1 trillion range, according to data source Allium.
Right now, traders on Polymarket, a decentralized betting platform, are assigning a 64% chance of SpaceX closing its first day of trading above a $2 trillion valuation. One close to over $3 trillion? Polymarket gives 5% chance.
In other words, the market expects a strong debut, but not a blowout.
For bitcoin traders, the IPO serves as a real test of the dominant narrative: that supply has drained venture capital from crypto, contributing to the recent price decline.
If that theory holds, capital should flow back into bitcoin and crypto once the IPO is out of the way and the initial allocation frenzy subsides. Pay attention!
Read more: For analysis of today’s activity in altcoins and derivatives, see Crypto Markets Today. For a comprehensive list of events this week, see CoinDesk’s “Crypto Week Ahead.”
What is trending
Today’s signal
The chart compares bitcoin’s daily price movements with Nasdaq-100 E-mini futures since March.
The strong positive correlation between the two collapsed in May as the Nasdaq surged while bitcoin fell. However, the Nasdaq has fallen this month, suggesting a potential realignment.
The key question is whether bitcoin can hold steady — having already absorbed significant losses — in the face of a potential Nasdaq selloff. Trading firm Wintermute noted last year that the correlation between the two assets is particularly strong during Nasdaq declines. If that momentum still holds, BTC risks slipping below $60,000.
