Blockchain-based prediction markets have recently emerged as the best place for investors to bet on the SpaceX IPO, offering a decentralized alternative to traditional pre-IPO markets. Unlike private equity deals that require accreditation and high minimum requirements, these onchain markets are accessible to retail investors with minimal capital, creating 24/7 price discovery on IPO odds.
At Wednesday’s level near $157, SPCX represented a premium of only about 16% to the $135 IPO price, down from about 60% when the contract briefly traded near $216 in May. At $183, the implied premium remains close to 36%.
Other shadow markets are now pointing in the same direction. Bloomberg reported Friday that IG International derivatives implied a SpaceX valuation of about $2.4 trillion, more than 35% above the $1.77 trillion valuation set by the IPO price.
Elsewhere, Polymarket traders are putting 70% odds on SpaceX closing its first day of trading above $2 trillion.
The pullback comes as pre-IPO SPCX has shown caution in the market, falling about 30% over the past few weeks. That suggested traders still expected SpaceX to trade above the offering price, but not at the explosive premium the book-building implied. And Friday’s bounce now says the discount is about to close.
