The profit rate for a cycle-aware approach is lower than buy and hold, and wins not by righting more often, but by avoiding the months when bitcoin loses 20%, 30% or 40%. These months cluster together, and stepping aside during them is not timing the market; it is about reading the cyclical structure of the asset.
We have made three public time-stamped market calls since 2022: the bottom of the cycle in October 2022, the projection of a target of $125,000 in July 2023, and the bear signal of October 2025, each based on the same signal framework. The methodology is not infallible. But it is systematic, auditable and structurally better suited to bitcoin’s cyclical nature than the passive approach most advisors currently employ.
Bitcoin rewards those who understand its cycle. Advisers who treat it like any other asset are leaving risk-adjusted returns on the table and subjecting clients to drawdowns that effectively end portfolios rather than manage them.
– Markus Thielen, CEO, 10x Research
Ask an expert
If blockchain technology succeeds, do investors own the real stuff?
For years, investors assumed that if a blockchain ecosystem grew, its native token would naturally appreciate. I am increasingly unconvinced that this is always true. Technology may become indispensable while value accrues elsewhere to sequencers, applications, stablecoin issuers or liquidity layers.
