Cubs vs Blue Jays betting picks and Michael Conforto player plug analysis

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I’m glad we didn’t take the line drive yesterday in the baseball game. We were down eight in the game between the White Sox and the Tigers and it ended 4-3. The Tigers picked up the win, but as I mentioned, it wasn’t justified for Detroit to be -250, even with Tarik Skubal on the mound. Today we switch to the Chicago National League team as the Cubs host the Blue Jays.

The Toronto Blue Jays are a team I’ve written about probably more than most teams in the league. It’s not a complaint or anything, it just happens that I see a lot of value in their game. Most of that is because when they are favorites, they are not heavy favorites given their 37-39 record and rash of injuries to their pitching staff. When they are dogs, they are usually pretty small cubs that offer little value, but that means the opposite favorite isn’t too high of a price.

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Pete Crow-Armstrong #4 of the Chicago Cubs rounds the bases after hitting a solo home run in the eighth inning during the game between the Chicago Cubs and the St. Louis Cardinals at Busch Stadium on Saturday, May 30, 2026 in St. Louis, Missouri. (Photo by Ali Overstreet/MLB Photos via Getty Images) (Ali Overstreet/MLB Photos via Getty Images)

The Jays were surprised by the Cubs yesterday, and they need a strong start today from Patrick Corbin. The once highly touted hurler is just 2-3 with a 4.57 ERA and a 1.48 WHIP. He had a decent year with the Rangers, but looks to struggle again like he did in his time with the Nationals. Corbin is slightly more reliable on the road, as he has pitched 10 more innings and has allowed three fewer runs on the road than at home, leading to a 3.57 ERA. He hasn’t given the Blue Jays much of late, going just 11.2 innings in three starts and allowing 11 runs on 17 hits. Cubs hitters are very strong against him, hitting .316 against him.

The Cubs are one of the more frustrating teams to watch this season. Maybe it’s just me saying this as a fan of the team, but they’ve had two 10-game winning streaks, and also a 10-game losing streak. Since May 9, the team has gone 13-24. Sure, some of that can be attributed to injuries to their pitching staff — they only have two healthy starters from the beginning of the year. But most of this has to be placed on the club stroke. Nico Hoerner is hitting .238, Ian Happ is at .228, and Dansby Swanson is a pathetic .177.

Toronto Blue Jays’ Ernie Clement hits a three-run home run during the third inning against the Baltimore Orioles in Toronto on June 6, 2026. (Frank Gunn/The Canadian Press)

Still, the Cubs struck out yesterday, and Pete Crow-Armstrong looks like the five-tool player from the first half of last season. If they can get some pitching, they might be the dominant team we saw earlier this year. Today’s starter is Colin Rea, who hasn’t been very good this month. He has made three starts, allowing 19 hits and 13 earned runs over 14.2 innings. However, he has been much better at home with a 3.03 ERA in five starts (six games). Blue Jays hitters haven’t seen much of him, but are hitting .176 against Rea in 17 at-bats.

There is a clear player plug to play in this one. The bad news, though, is that he’s not on the options list, so you may have to request or find him in a book other than DraftKings. Michael Conforto is 12-for-36 against Corbin with seven extra-base hits, including five homers. I would play him at 2+ total bases and at one homer as long as you can get +200 or better for the bases, and +700 for the homer prop.

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Pete Crow-Armstrong #4 of the Chicago Cubs reacts after being hit by a pitch in the eighth inning against the Chicago White Sox at Rate Field on May 17, 2026 in Chicago, Illinois. (Michael Hirschuber/Getty Images)

If you can’t find it, or they never post it (but I have to imagine they’ll give options once he’s added to the lineup, and he absolutely should be, given his history), I still have a game. I’m taking the Cubs at -130 here. Rea isn’t the most reliable, but he should at least be decent here, and the Cubs will have the fresher bullpen. Give me the Cubs to win this one.

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