NEWYou can now listen to Pakinomist articles!
The NBA Finals ended just a week ago, and we’re already looking ahead to next year. That’s mostly because tonight is the NBA Draft. This is one of my favorite days of the sports calendar year. I love the NBA, I love college basketball too, and tonight is when worlds collide. This gives all teams a chance to strengthen their rosters and potentially get a piece that transforms their team. It also gives us a chance to bet and make some money.
AJ Dybantsa declares for the NBA Draft during an event at Davis K-8 School in Brockton, Mass., on April 23, 2026. (Jonathan Wiggs/The Boston Globe/Getty Images)
The obvious choices
The first three picks, most likely in that order, will be AJ Dybantsa, Darryn Peterson and Cameron Boozer. Dybantsa ends up with the Wizards as the first overall pick. There is no value in betting him at -700 and the US based books won’t let you parlay him with other picks (or really any parlays for that matter). However, there may still be some value in betting Peterson at -250 to go No. 2 overall. The reason is that if Dybantsa wasn’t in this draft, Peterson would be the first pick in the draft.
Cameron Boozer is a very good player, but there are many questions about how talented he will be as a professional. He is rumored to end up with the Grizzlies at third. His father, Carlos Boozer, used to play for the Jazz, so if anyone falls to second, it could be him. However, Peterson is considered the better player and the more likely choice.
NBA LOTTERY CHAOS: WASHINGTON WIZARDS STRIKE GOLD, PACERS PAY FOR TANKING GAMBLE NIGHTMARE
Caleb Wilson of North Carolina is also going to the Bulls. These top four picks are pretty much set. If any of those four guys aren’t in the top four, it would be Boozer, in my opinion.
Keaton Wagler of the Illinois Fighting Illini dribbles against Isaia Howard of the Iowa Hawkeyes during the first half of the Elite Eight of the 2026 NCAA men’s basketball tournament at the Toyota Center in Houston, Texas on March 28, 2026. (Alex Slitz/Getty Images)
What to bet
I really like Keaton Wagler under 7.5 for his draft position. There are two teams that have talked a lot about Wagler – one being the fifth-ranked Clippers. The other is the Nets in sixth place. Most reports say Wagler is a better fit for the Clippers if they keep the pick. If they trade it, who is a team that trades up to the draft? There aren’t three better players in the draft than Wagler. He’s -290 to be drafted seventh or lower, so it’s very expensive, but it should be -600 or higher, or maybe the line should be closer to 6.5. To be perfectly clear, I’m not saying this is a good bet. -290 isn’t exactly a steal, but there’s still significant value in that number.
Aday Mara is now rumored to be headed to Dallas, who own the No. 9 pick. That makes sense considering they could use a center and their new coach is Dusty May, who coached Mara in college. Other than them taking him, there really aren’t many teams that I see reaching for him. I would lean to the over 9.5 if Dallas chooses a different direction. It looks like he’ll go ninth or potentially much later, so there’s no reason to go under unless you think he’s definitely going to Dallas.
No. 15 Yaxel Lendeborg +1000. I’m not sure he’ll still be there, but it’s rumored that the Bulls are very interested in Lendeborg. He fits their team quite well. He can shoot, he can drive, he can rebound and he can defend. The problem is, he doesn’t do any of them at an elite level. I can see him falling but this would be an ideal spot and there are rumors of interest so it’s a decent risk to take.
Yaxel Lendeborg of the Michigan Wolverines reacts after being fouled and scored in the second half of the NCAA Men’s Basketball Tournament Elite Eight game against the Tennessee Volunteers at the United Center in Chicago, Ill., March 29, 2026. Michigan won 95-62. (Aaron J. Thornton/Getty Images)
Darius Acuff is one of the more polarizing players. There is no doubt about his scoring ability. There are a lot of good guards in this draft though – Peterson, Acuff, Wagler, Mikel Brown, Brayden Burries. Acuff is someone who has had a good college coach (John Calipari), known for landing a lot of great NBA talent. His height will be an issue, but Jalen Brunson just won Finals MVP. At -120 for him to go exactly seventh I don’t think it’s a good bet, but if you see him at over 7.5 I’d take it. Rumored to go to the Kings, he would be a decent fit, especially considering the team has no point guard. But if any of the guards I mentioned earlier are available (other than maybe Burries), I think they’ll go over Acuff.
CLICK HERE TO DOWNLOAD THE Pakinomist APP
For the night, there are not a lot of good options. In terms of value, Wagler is the -290 under 7.5 min favorite (he’s -450 at Caesars Sportsbook). Potentially, Lendeborg at #15 is good money; he is also over 13.5 at Caesars. I would also take Mara over 9.5. Acuff is listed at over 6.5 -115 at Caesars; I would take that. Shop around because the numbers are drastically different.
CLICK HERE FOR MORE SPORTS COVERAGE ON Pakinomist
For more information on sports betting and gambling, follow David on X/Twitter: @futureprez2024
