The clamp comes from both directions. As Strategy issued more STRC to fund bitcoin purchases, its annual dividend obligations rose from about $300 million at the start of 2026 to $1.2 billion now, a nearly fourfold jump in less than six months.
CryptoQuant noted the necessary reserve to reach about $2.8 billion, or 24 months of coverage, for STRC to recover. As such, Strategy reported a reserve of $1.1 billion in mid-June.
So its bitcoin offers less of a backstop than its size suggests.
“The company is sitting on an unrealized loss of $10.6 billion, with all Bitcoin purchased in 2024, 2025 and 2026 underwater,” CryptoQuant said. “Any forced BTC sale at current prices would crystallize huge losses and destroy shareholder value.”
However, a forced sale is unlikely anytime soon. Strategy is not required to sell bitcoin to defend STRC and can instead raise dividends or sell new shares to signal it can keep paying, tools it already uses.
CryptoQuant’s prescription is for Strategy to pause its bitcoin buying and rebuild the reserve first, then adopt a systematic approach to timing purchases instead of buying when it raises capital.
Strategy can’t just turn off payments to save cash. STRC’s dividends are cumulative, meaning any missed payments will still have to be caught up later, and CryptoQuant said the company is unlikely to suspend them anyway because doing so would damage its credibility with the preferred holders it needs.
The report is a sharper reading than the one Benchmark-StoneX offered on Tuesday.
