The pressure on crypto has come into its own. The break below $60,000 reflects continued outflows from US spot bitcoin ETFs, the Federal Reserve’s hawkish turn and a US dollar that climbed to a seven-month high, Alex Kuptsikevich, chief market analyst at FxPro, said in an email to CoinDesk.
A stronger dollar makes dollar-denominated assets like bitcoin more expensive for foreign buyers and tends to pull money out of risky trades.
FxPro has also flagged a long-term warning. Bitcoin is hovering near its 200-week moving average, the average price over the past roughly four years and a closely watched long-term trend line.
The last three times bitcoin sank to that line, the weakness was prolonged rather than brief, lasting about nine months in 2015, six months in 2018, and about six quarters after the 2022 collapse. The firm said the pattern points to a crypto winter, an extended stretch of depressed prices, rather than a quick recovery.
For now, Kuptsikevich sees a band around $61,800 to $62,000 as the next test, a cluster of resting orders that could either pull the price up as short sellers are forced to buy back, or cap the rejection as resistance.
If support breaks, he said, $55,000 is a likely cycle low. He urged traders to treat risk management as a priority rather than chasing direction.
