2026 FIFA World Cup title cake: Is Messi’s Argentina or Mbappé’s France the favourite?

Group stage at the 2026 FIFA World Cup is drawing to a close and there weren’t many surprises as we head towards the knockout stages. But does that mean the favorites entering the tournament must remain the favorites ahead of the knockout stage?

“First Things First’s” Nick Wright thinks so. As we’re almost done with Match Day 3 at the World Cup, Wright dished out percentages on the teams most likely to win the tournament.

Here’s who he has as favorites and who he can see as sneaky underdogs.

Less than 1%, but deserves a slice

Sweden
Ivory Coast
Senegal
Ghana
Croatia
Egypt
Canada

Wright’s thoughts: “I don’t like the way they’ve looked at all. And then all of a sudden because of Senegal’s margin of victory and the other match situations in third place. It’s not like they have to tie New Zealand tonight, they have to win against New Zealand tonight or they’re going home I think.”

Wright’s thoughts: “They won their group. They stole Canada’s way. Now they’re going to stay in Vancouver through the Round of 16. It was the easiest group, but they’ve looked good.”

Wright’s thoughts: “A team that has looked better than 2% but I hate their draw for them. I know Ian Darke said [Japan likes having a tough path]but I disagree. They play against Brazil now in the round of 16. So their WC is coming to an end. But they played well.”

Wright’s thoughts: “If we made this pie on Sunday morning, it could be very different. Can they beat Portugal? What can they do to win the group on Saturday? If they don’t, then all of a sudden they have to play Spain in the first round of this tournament and they’re probably done.”

Wright’s thoughts: “The Netherlands at the moment when the draw came out had to feel like: ‘Well, it’s not right. What is our goal? Win our group. Oh, sweetie. What happens if we win our group? Our first match is either against Morocco or Brazil. They won their group and their first game is against Morocco. They can absolutely win that game. It’s just that it could be a quarter-final match and instead of round.

Wright’s thoughts: “Perfect’s perfect: Six goals scored, zero goals allowed [in group play]. They’re going to stay in Mexico until potentially the quarter-finals and that makes for a potentially incredible round of 16.”

Wright’s thoughts: “Norway goes down to 4%. Norway, I’m not mad. I’m disappointed. I’m disappointed that you were undefeated as a favorite. [in France] and decided you were fine with playing for second place. It’s just disappointing. I like Erling Haaland.”

Wright’s thoughts: “Look, they’ve been excellent. Their percentage, like Holland, is hampered by the fact that their round of 16 is brutal when they play Holland. If they get through that game, then they get the winner of Canada-South Africa and then suddenly France. [in the quarterfinals]. It was the semi-final of the last World Cup. It could be the quarter-finals here.”

Wright’s thoughts: “It’s up because the last time I did this, they had only played one game. Christian Pulisic is back and healthy. They have no yellow card suspensions to worry about. And, they’re the only team in the tournament going to the quarters that might not involve ever playing a top-20 team [if Belgium loses in the round of 32].”

Wright’s thoughts: “If they take care of business against Colombia and win that game and the group, you can decide for yourselves. If they don’t, I don’t think it was so much that Game 1 was the aberration and Game 2 was them returning to form. Rather, Game 1 might be who they are in this tournament and Game 2 was the aberration. But if they win for a great game against Argentina, it’s great potential in the game against Argentina.

“If Portugal look good on Saturday night in Miami against Colombia, then I will move them into the top four. I just have to see that the first game was an aberration.”

Wright’s thoughts: “They lost [to Ecuador]but they also had everything clinched. So I won’t kill them for it. The percentage has decreased because they are in the same quadrant as France. Assuming France and Germany win their first games, the Round of 16 – which used to be the first knockout round – will be France v Germany.

Wright’s thoughts: “I’m not as optimistic about England as everyone else seems to be. Now maybe the draw against Ghana was because they won their first game and they weren’t worried about it. But here’s the other reason I’m a bit worried about England: They’re on a collision course for the most difficult World Cup environment for a road team in 20-plus 16 years in Mexico City against Mexico City, England in the Mexico City game. It will be the biggest football story home field advantage since Korea played Germany in the semifinals in Seoul in 2002.”

Wright’s thoughts: “They’re probably fine, but [they almost had to play Argentina due to underperforming group play].”

Wright’s thoughts: “All they’ve done is win by the biggest margin. They had one of the toughest groups. They won more games with three plus goals. But people don’t like it because they’re not as fancy as when they had Ronaldinho doing the Nike commercials.

“They have been unfairly maligned for reasons that no one has explained. They won the only group with two top-10 teams in the world. They have arguably the only best manager in the tournament. They also have a great road. They will also probably play England or Mexico after their emotional quarter-final. If they come through that, you have played the wild game in Argentina or Portugal. the best defense in the tournament so far and one of the guys who could win the golden boot.”

Wright’s thoughts: “I don’t know how much to give France credit for [its win over Norway]given what Norway ended up doing. But they obviously looked great.

“They have the most talent of any team in the tournament.”

Wright’s thoughts: “Argentina are favorites right now. They haven’t conceded a goal. Lionel Messi seems like a man on a mission.

“The vibes meter couldn’t be higher.