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Spain’s 1-0 win on Friday night may have put a damper on a few teams’ World Cup plans.
Victory over Uruguay gave Spain the Group H title, meaning they will play the winner of the final group stage match between Austria and Algeria on Saturday night.
Spain is a soccer powerhouse that ranks as the third-best FIFA program in the world, and would be heavy favorites over both Austria (22nd) and Algeria (29th).
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Austria and Algeria can actually benefit from not winning its last group stage match (Dean Mouhtaropoulos, Charlotte Wilson/Getty Images)
Therefore, both teams may actually benefit from not winning on Saturday night.
We have already mentioned that Spain will face the winner of the match as Group J runners-up. So for Algeria, a draw is easily its best scenario.
With a draw, Algeria would clinch a place in the knockout round as third in Group J and face either Belgium, Switzerland, England or Ghana. However, a loss means almost certain elimination, so tread lightly.
Its path will be much clearer when it takes to the field at 10 PM ET in Kansas City, but so far The Athletic gives Algeria less than a 1% chance to advance with a loss. If previous bets go in their favor early, the probability jumps to just 9%.
Riyad Mahrez and Algeria’s starting eleven pose before the FIFA World Cup 2026 Group J match against Jordan at the San Francisco Bay Area Stadium in Santa Clara, California on June 22, 2026. (Erin Chang/ISI Images)
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Austria’s situation is a little different, as a loss doesn’t kill it outright. But since a win or draw means facing Spain, it might just be a case of hoping for a loss and progressing through the tiebreakers, which will again become clearer as the day goes on.
At the time of publication, Austria has a 38% chance of going forward with a loss. That percentage would go to 65% with a Ghana win at 5 p.m. ET, and then 72% with an Uzbekistan win or draw against DR Congo at 7:30 p.m. ET.
However, if Ghana loses or ties to Croatia, and then DR Congo wins, Austria would be eliminated with a loss. So it would have to accept its fate, try to win or draw and worry about Spain later.
Austria supporters cheer at Dallas Stadium during the FIFA World Cup 2026 Group J match between Argentina and Austria on June 22, 2026 in Dallas, Texas. (Torbjorn Tande/DeFodi photos)
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The quick summary: Algeria wants a draw because a win means facing Spain and a loss almost equals elimination. Austria may have to begrudgingly face the music rather than rely on tiebreakers, but its true interest, and perhaps level of commitment to the game, will be known at 10 p.m. ET.
All this is to say – Algeria deliberately scoring an own goal late on for their own benefit might not be out of the question.
