Bitcoin trading in a narrow range between $59,000 and $60,000 for the fifth day in a row, a quiet stretch that some analysts warn is more dangerous than it looks because of where it’s happening.
The range itself is normal. Bitcoin spent much of 2024, from March to October, consolidating between $55,000 and $70,000 with occasional breakouts in either direction. What makes the current setup riskier is its location, Alex Kuptsikevich, chief market analyst at FxPro, said in an email to CoinDesk.
This band is below the levels that triggered the rebounds in February and early this month, as well as the 50-day and 200-day moving averages. Traders are keeping a close eye on the two averages, and both are trending downward right now, indicating a bearish bias.
And that is the signature of a downtrend rather than a market building a base from which to climb.
“This is a pretty dangerous consolidation for the bulls,” Kuptsikevich said, noting that the 2024 version formed in a rising market, while this one formed in a falling one. If the pattern breaks lower instead of resolving higher, he said, the next meaningful move down is around $40,000.
Some onchain indicators suggest the same. Pseudonymous CryptoQuant analyst Darkfost flags signs that long-term owners are starting to capitulate or sell at a loss. In previous cycles, this phase has marked attractive entry points for buyers, although it signals pain in the short term.
