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After a terrible week last week for sports betting in general, but baseball specifically, I found my way into the favor of the baseball gods this week and have won four of the last five games I’ve posted. When I get hot, I want to ride the streak as long as possible, but you also have to stay grounded and make sure you don’t let your bankroll loose because you never know when it might stop. I don’t think it stops in this game between the Pirates and the Phillies.
We are now more than halfway through the season and the Pittsburgh Pirates are .500 for the season. It’s an achievement for this team, but not where they ultimately want to finish for the year. But they’ll probably have their sights set on a Wild Card spot at this point. They are 10.5 games behind in the division, which is not insurmountable. However, the Brewers are a very good team and I think other teams ahead of them will have more resources to make moves at the trade deadline.
Pittsburgh Pirates pitcher Paul Skenes delivers during the second inning of a baseball game against the Chicago Cubs in Pittsburgh, Tuesday, Sept. 16, 2025. (AP Photo/Gene J. Puskar, File)
The Pirates will have to find a way to get some pitching. Their offense has improved, but only one starter has really been reliable, and he takes the mound tonight. Paul Skenes is on the mound today and while this is the worst ERA of his young career, he is still a top pitcher in the league. He is 6-7 for the season with a 3.10 ERA and a 0.97 WHIP. He is also ninth in strikeouts in the league. The Pirates haven’t fared well in his starts lately; they have lost eight games in a row he has started. In fairness, he has allowed four or more runs in three of those starts, so it’s not just a lack of run support. The Phillies tossed him around to start this losing streak as he went five innings, allowed five runs on six hits.
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The Philadelphia Phillies are the poster child for what can happen if you make moves. They cut ties with their manager and it instantly turned their season around. They enter today’s game with a 48-38 record on the year. They were 9-19 as of April 26, which means they have gone from 10 games under to 10 games over .500. They have to be considered one of the favorites to win the World Series, and they are only 2.5 games back of Atlanta for the division crown at the moment. However, there is still a long time to figure out both of these.
21 July 2025; Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, USA; Philadelphia Phillies pitcher Zack Wheeler (45) throws a pitch during the second inning against the Boston Red Sox at Citizens Bank Park. (Eric Hartline/Imagn Images)
Before we get to that, we have one of the reasons I think the Phillies should be considered a major threat to win the World Series taking the mound today. Zack Wheeler is going to take the ball against Skenes in what should be the best pitching game of the day. Wheeler is having another phenomenal season. He started the season on the injured list, so he doesn’t qualify for the lead in anything, but he is 8-1 on the year with a 2.03 ERA and a 0.86 WHIP. The Phillies have been good in their starts, winning 10 of their 12 outings. He allowed just six earned runs over five starts in June, and he didn’t allow more than two earned runs in any game.
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Wheeler faced the Pirates in May and dominated. He went seven innings, allowing four hits and no runs. Overall, he has been dominant against the Pirates, allowing them just 24 hits over 128 at-bats in his career. Marcell Ozuna is a guy you want to fade today as he is just 12-for-64 with 25 strikeouts against Wheeler.
Zack Wheeler #45 of the Philadelphia Phillies looks on during a game against the Atlanta Braves in the first inning at Truist Park on June 28, 2025 in Atlanta, Georgia. (Brett Davis/Getty Images)
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Under becomes something almost everyone wants to bet on today. I’m a little surprised the total isn’t lower, but that could be because Skenes didn’t pitch quite as well as he has in previous seasons. I think he will be better in this game than he was the first time he faced the Phillies. He seems to be learning well and making adjustments. I don’t know who will win, but I think we need to get under 3.5 runs through five innings at +105. If you want, I really like Wheeler under 2.5 earned runs allowed too.
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