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Happy Independence Day, everyone! Nothing says independence more than the freedom to take our hard-earned money and put it on a sport that most people only watch every four years. We do it with the Olympics and we do it with the WC. We’ve had some swings and misses, but we’ve also cashed in a few solid plus-money plays. Let’s try to do it again.
Canada vs Morocco
This marks the start of the Round of 16. There aren’t very many lopsided games in the odds anymore – more on that in a moment. Instead, we should get the best teams and solid matches from here. Canada vs Morocco is no exception. Canada is here after taking down Saudi Arabia. I haven’t seen much of our neighbors to the north that I’ve been overly impressed with. They’ve scored at least one goal in every game and had two shutouts, so that’s something to be proud of.
MOROCCO SENDS THE NETHERLANDS HOME WITH DRAMATIC WORLD CUP KNOCKOUT IN PUNISHMENT
TOPSHOT – Morocco defender #18 Jawad El Yamiq (C) attempts a shot during the Qatar 2022 World Cup semi-final soccer match between France and Morocco at Al-Bayt Stadium in Al Khor, north of Doha on December 14, 2022. (Photo by KARIM JAAFAR / AFP)
For Morocco, they had a much more difficult task to get the win against the Netherlands. They won on penalties and it was a wild penalty. They haven’t actually lost a game yet either and only have one draw. This should be a close game and a draw at +245 is where the value lies in my opinion. I’m not going to tell you it’s a safe bet, but I think these two teams are a little more even, and neither of them seem to be super aggressive on offense. Give me the draw.
France’s Kylian Mbappe, left, celebrates after scoring the opening penalty shootout goal during the Euro 2024 Group B qualifying soccer match between France and Greece at the Stade de France, outside Paris, Monday, June 19, 2023. (AP Photo/Christophe Ena)
Paraguay against France
If you watched the Argentina game yesterday, you know that lines don’t always tell you the whole story of how things will go. The Argentines were heavy favorites and Cape Verde gave them all they could handle. Argentina won 3-2, but it took extra time to get there. Paraguay have a chance to do so today against France. France are -1600 to progress, meaning that even if it goes to penalties, France are still the massive favourites. Paraguay beat Germany on penalties for their win to get here. It was their best game of the tournament.
France’s Olivier Giroud celebrates after Kylian Mbappe scored their team’s second goal during the World Cup Round of 16 soccer match between France and Poland at Al Thumama Stadium in Doha, Qatar, Sunday, Dec. 4, 2022. (AP Photo/Ricardo Mazalan)
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France have looked unstoppable. They are still the favorites to win the World Cup. If you’ve seen them, and even if you’re not a football fan, you can see why. Kylian Mbappe has been dynamic and continues to score goals. He is a real threat to Messi and the Golden Boot. He is -205 to score a goal today. I prefer his teammate, Ousmane Dembele. I think that so much attention goes to Mbappe, Dembele, who already has four goals himself in this tournament, gets less attention and easier looks. I’ll play him to score at +105.
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