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At the beginning of the WNBA season, there were two teams that people assumed would win the WNBA Championship. One of them was the New York Liberty. The other was the Las Vegas Aces. After all, the teams have won the last four championships. The Minnesota Lynx were expected to be fine, but take a step back due to a lack of MVP. We head into tonight’s game where the Liberty look anything but a championship contender and their challenger, the Wings, look like they could be.
Liberty is one of those teams that has plenty of star power, but it just isn’t going well this season. Let’s start with the good – Breanna Stewart continues to be one of the best players in the league, dominating with 20.4 points per game. match. They won when it mattered most (so far), taking the WNBA Commissioner’s Cup. It looks like Sabrina Ionescu is finally getting back into her stride. Outside the Cup, however, they are only 2-7 over their last nine games.
New York Liberty forward Breanna Stewart (30) takes a jump shot in the third quarter against the Atlanta Dream at Barclays Center. Mandatory credit: Wendell Cruz-Imagn Images (Wendell Cruz-Imagn Images)
Maybe it’s just a matter of the Liberty knowing they’re going to make the playoffs, then doing their damage. They have shown signs of being streaky all season. They had an eight-game winning streak, but as mentioned, they have also struggled. Like most teams, they’ve had to deal with injuries and that can be a problem for making a consistent lineup work. I think Liberty will be fine in the end, but they’ll probably run pretty fast.
I don’t want to break my arm patting myself on the back, but of all the WNBA teams, I picked the Wings to take the biggest step forward this season. They had two players added to the roster that I thought would make a big impact. The first is Azzi Fudd, the number one overall pick in this past year’s draft. I know, great insight, to say that the first choice would be useful. After looking a little timid early in the year, she is now shooting much better and playing better as well. She is third on her team in shot attempts and I think that helps give her teammate Paige Bueckers some options for another threat on the court with her.
Dallas Wings guard Azzi Fudd (35) dribbles upcourt against the Las Vegas Aces during the game on May 3, 2026 at the Moody Center in Austin, Texas. (Adam Davis/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)
The other person that I expected to make an impact was Alanna Smith. She will not be available for tonight’s game and has played in 20 of their 24 games. She has also only started seven games for the Wings. She doesn’t make the impact I expected. She is a 3-and-D player and was co-defensive player of the year last year. Wings struggled significantly on defense last year and I thought she would help transform that part of the game.
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For the year, the Wings are still allowing 85 points per game, which is better than last season, but not great. Liberty is not much better with 84 points per game. match. Dallas is also playing some of their best basketball after winning five games in a row. They have run their record to 16-8 for the season and look to make the postseason.
New York Liberty guard Sabrina Ionescu (20) celebrates after making a basket in the second half of a WNBA basketball second round playoff game against the Las Vegas Aces, Sunday, Sept. 29, 2024, in New York. (AP Photo/Corey Sipkin)
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I’ll take a shot at Liberty tonight. This game is a bit of a toss up, but the Liberty have lost the first two games to the Wings this season, and are now on the verge of being swept for the season. I also like that the Liberty lost to the Wings just a few days ago. I know Dallas plays better basketball, but I think the pride comes out a little bit here and New York wins. Give me them at +105.
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