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Yesterday the twins brought a loss when I apparently backed the wrong horse in the race. The usually reliable Joe Ryan looked awful and allowed a lot of runs early. I actually prefer losing this way because I don’t have to pay attention to it. It was misread and I can start looking at the next day of games. It was a matchup between two AL Central teams; I’m going to try one with the other from the division when the Tigers take on the Cubs.
The Detroit Tigers are still under .500, but no one in the division has run away with the lead, so there’s still a chance they can turn it around. You don’t need to give them a big reminder of how August and September can change a division race. They were heavy favorites last year to win the division, and the Guardians had a phenomenal stretch to steal the division. The Tigers got the last laugh as they won in the playoffs. Still, this team needs a shakeup one way or another, and all the talk surrounding them is whether or not Tarik Skubal gets traded.
DETROIT, MICHIGAN – MAY 5: Framber Valdez #59 of the Detroit Tigers throws a pitch in the third inning of the game against the Boston Red Sox at Comerica Park on May 5, 2026 in Detroit, Michigan. (Photo by Mike Mulholland/Getty Images) ((Photo by Mike Mulholland/Getty Images))
During the offseason, they knew they had to make a decision about Skubal, and they signed Framber Valdez, the best available starter, to kind of soften the blow of losing Skubal. For the year, Valdez is 5-6 with a 4.10 ERA and a 1.32 WHIP. Those numbers aren’t terrible, but they aren’t exactly top-of-the-rotation quality either. Valdez has done a pretty good job of keeping the ball down in general. He has 178 ground balls as opposed to 158 fly balls, and that doesn’t count his strikeouts. Cubs hitters haven’t fared very well against Valdez either, going just 4-for-32 against him.
The Chicago Cubs are pretty much in the same place they were last season. They were solid as a club, but they still look up to the Milwaukee Brewers. They are one of the streakier clubs in baseball, and if their offense starts to slow down, they are really going to struggle. That’s mostly because the pitching staff seems to be held together by duct tape and Band-Aids. They’ve made a few trades to get some weapons that might help them during the year, but none you really want going into the postseason with.
June 27, 2026; Milwaukee, Wisconsin, USA; Chicago Cubs pitcher David Peterson (19) delivers a pitch against the Milwaukee Brewers in the first inning at American Family Field. (Michael McLoone-Imagn Photos)
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One of the trades they made was for today’s starter, David Peterson. His numbers are pretty ugly, but the Cubs either thought they could flip him or saw something in him that made them think it was a worthwhile investment. He is 4-7 with a 6.45 ERA and a 1.64. He was much better in his last outing for them than his first. Against the Orioles, he went five innings and allowed two hits and one earned run. Against the Cardinals, he allowed 10 earned runs on nine hits over 3.2 innings. The Tigers are 3-for-8 against him.
Wrigley Field in Chicago is hosting a game between the Chicago Cubs and the New York Mets on April 17, 2026. (Matt Dirksen/Chicago Cubs/Getty Images)
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Some ballparks have a greater impact on betting than others. When the wind blows out at Wrigley Field, the ball flies out and it looks like the total can’t be high enough. Tonight the wind blows in. Peterson is more of a fly ball pitcher, but there shouldn’t be too much damage against him considering the wind can knock things down. Valdez is more of a groundball pitcher. I think this game will go under the 8.5 total tonight thanks to both pitchers being aided by the wind. The Tigers aren’t much of an offensive force to begin with either. Give me under.
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