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I played last night in the Royals and Tigers game and to spoil any surprise, it was a loser. I took the Royals at +170, mostly because I felt the line was way off. I still cashed in under, but I hope anyone serious about sports betting takes a look at that article. Even though it was a loss, I loved the play. There was plenty of value on the Royals, who lost 4-3. There are times when you need to take pictures and this one rewarded me mentally because I feel like I at least put myself in the right place to make money. I’m hoping to actually get the money physically in today’s Astros and White Sox games.
The Houston Astros are still hanging in there, but the question of whether they will buy, sell or stand pat next week is up for debate. For the season, they are four games under .500, but they are just two games back of the American League West division. That’s not exactly the position you should be in if you plan to throw in the towel. Their best player, Yordan Alvarez, is having an MVP season, another reason to keep pushing and see if they can make the postseason.
Houston Astros’ Yordan Alvarez, right, hits a three-run home run during the fifth inning of a baseball game against the Oakland Athletics, Tuesday, July 6, 2021, in Houston.
They already traded away one of their starters, but I don’t feel like that was a sign the team was trying to give up. I think it was more about their roster and salary than anything else. Today they put Spencer Arrighetti out on the mound. For the season, Arrighetti is 7-5 with a 4.34 ERA and a 1.31 WHIP. He has been worse on the road with a 5.52 ERA. He has also allowed eight earned runs in both of his last two road starts. I’m thinking maybe he’ll come out of the trouble he had in June. In May he had a 0.93 ERA and in June he had a 9.00 ERA. So far, through three starts, he has allowed eight earned runs in four innings, and two earned runs in 11 innings spanning two starts.
The Chicago White Sox were expected to be sellers, but this team has some heart and looks like they are pulling things together. Part of the reason sports are so much fun are teams like the White Sox. A team that no one expected anything from this year and they have turned it around to be in a playoff race. There’s still a long way to go and one injury could derail it all, but you have to feel solid about how they’ve played and looked if you’re a Sox fan.
Tristan Peters, #29, of the Chicago White Sox runs to third base for a triple against the Athletics at Rate Field in Chicago, Ill., on July 10, 2026. (Geoff Stellfox/Getty Images)
One of the brightest spots on this list has been today’s starter, Davis Martin. For the season, Martin is 9-5 on the year with a 3.31 ERA and a 1.27 WHIP. Martin has been elite at Guaranteed Rate Field this season with a 1.80 ERA. He has allowed just nine earned runs at home in 45 innings. And five of those earned runs came in the last start against the Red Sox. Perhaps most impressively, he has allowed just 33 walks all year and only 10 have come home.
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Baseball is a sport where you usually have the opportunity to follow the sharp lines and line movements quite safely. There aren’t a ton of public players who read up on teams. Sharp money tends to move these lines, and the line is moving in favor of the Astros. Sharp does not always win, however. There is also a move where they will bet on one side just to lower the line and get bigger money on the opposite side. I could see it happening here.
Chicago White Sox manager Will Venable meets on the mound with catcher Drew Romo, shortstop Colson Montgomery, first baseman Munetaka Murakami and second baseman Chase Meidroth during an MLB game at Rate Field in Chicago on May 13, 2026. (Patrick Gorski/Icon Sportswire)
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If you don’t understand what it means, don’t worry. Basically, I think the White Sox will win this game. Martin is a better pitcher, in better shape and more reliable as a home starter. Arrighetti is bad on the road and something has been wrong with him since June. It’s possible sharps have been good value in the Astros, but now that the line is much lower, I think the Sox are the right side and could see money poured into them late. Give me the White Sox on the money line.
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For more information on sports betting and gambling, follow David on X/Twitter: @futureprez2024
