Bryce Miller vs. MacKenzie Gore with Rangers favored and over 7.5

We are in a bit of a dull period for sports. We don’t have a ton of the major sports going on at the moment. The NBA has taken a break from the Summer League (which, by the way, set viewership records). The NFL mini-camps haven’t officially started. The NHL has free agency underway, but most of the big names are signed. That leaves us with just baseball, which is fine by me – I love betting on it. Luckily, we also have some great games today, like this one between the Mariners and the Rangers.

The Seattle Mariners are really frustrating because, on paper, they look like a team that should run away with not only their division, but among the best in the American League. That is not the case, unfortunately. The Mariners are 51-52 on the season and have been pretty bad on the road with a 21-29 record. I keep waiting for this team to turn it on, but they are just average. Their offense regularly struggles. The pitching staff is still dominant, but they don’t get the support they need.

Today, the Mariners get arguably the best pitcher in their rotation this season, Bryce Miller, to throw. Miller is 4-4 on the year with a 2.27 ERA and a 0.88 WHIP. The problem for Seattle is that he didn’t start the year before in May. His ERA for the month has also increased every month from 1.71 in May to 2.19 in June and now 3.06 in July. To be clear, anyone would take those numbers, but it’s something to monitor. He has also been significantly worse on the road than at home. He has allowed just 16 earned runs this year, but 13 of those have been in the road.

The Texas Rangers actually lead the American League West at the moment. That’s not a huge surprise after they reinvested in their rotation in the offseason. The team doesn’t have super elite hitting, but they still have some very potent bats in the lineup. Their batting average is one of the better in the league at .247, but they don’t score a ton of runs at just 427 for the season. And the pitching staff they tried to improve is pitching to a 4.32 ERA.

Texas Rangers starting pitcher MacKenzie Gore pitches against the New York Yankees during the first inning at Yankee Stadium in Bronx, NY on May 7, 2026. (Brad Penner/Imagn Images)

Tonight, the big addition they made in the offseason, MacKenzie Gore, is on the toe. Gore has been fine for the Rangers with a 6-8 record, 4.80 ERA and a 1.28 WHIP. I think his WHIP is something that might indicate he can lower his ERA. He has also been better at home with a 3.44 ERA. July has been a bit of a rough month for him, with 18 earned runs allowed already, including three of four starts with at least five earned runs allowed. He has faced Seattle twice this season at home; he went five innings, struck out nine batters and allowed one hit in the scoreless appearance.

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I don’t love the sailors in this situation. I know they have the better hitter, but this is a bit of a Jekyll and Hyde situation with Miller. On the road, he is just not as good as at home. Gore hasn’t been elite, but he’s been much better and more reliable at home than he has been on the road. Seattle has also struggled in general on the road.

Texas Rangers’ Ezequiel Duran runs toward home plate to score on an error by Cleveland Guardians left fielder Cooper Ingle in the seventh inning of a baseball game in Cleveland, Tuesday, June 30, 2026. (AP Photo/Sue Ogrocki)

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For those reasons, I’m taking the Rangers tonight. Gore is a good pitcher and I think he can get the win to open this series. Texas is 4-2 against the Mariners this season and has already swept them once at home this season. I just think it’s a bad situation and place for the sailors. I also think the total goes over 7.5 tonight.

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