The crypto market closes the week on a constructive note, with bitcoin added as much as 1.1% since midnight UTC to $65,760 as the broader market held firm despite a macro backdrop that should add far more pressure.
Brent crude futures traded at $97.66 a barrel, the highest since mid-May, as the Iran conflict shows no signs of de-escalation. While past oil spikes have rattled risk assets, including crypto, digital assets are largely green this morning.
Ether (ETH) mirrored bitcoin’s gains, rising as much as 1.6%, while the likes of HYPE and FET rose more than 2%.
Traditional markets are muted, with S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 index futures both marginally positive and gold holding above $4,000. The dollar index has fallen slightly.
Derivatives positioning
- Market exit dominates activity: Volume rose 11% to $165 billion in 24 hours, while open interest (OI) held steady at around $116 billion. This shows a market that has seen departure rather than positional interest.
- Bearish build-up in dogecoin: DOGE futures OI continues to rise, approaching 16 billion tokens, the most since October. The continued increases come as DOGE’s spot price remains under pressure after falling to its lowest since November 2023 on Thursday. The combination of increasing open interest along with a decrease in price is said to confirm the downtrend and signal traders’ interest in shorting the declining market.
- Mixed signals from ether: OI in ether futures is also rising, currently at 14.53 million ETH, the highest since June 7th. Other indicators paint a mixed picture with positive fund rates still pointing to bullish sentiment, while the negative 24-hour CVD indicates that bears are leading the price action by shorting market orders rather than placing limit orders.
- Broad-based bear management: With the exception of TRX and CRO, most tokens, including BTC, have negative 24-hour CVD.
- Volatility decreases: There is good news for the bulls from the BVIV index, which measures BTC’s 30-day implied volatility. The measure has fallen 3% since midnight to 39%, halting a five-day streak of gains. Ether’s EVIV is also under pressure.
- Option cluster: In the Deribit-listed bitcoin options market, a massive $5 billion open interest cluster has formed for $70,000-$72,000 options, mainly driven by bullish bets or call options. Volume rankings also show a bias to the upside with calls at strikes $77,000 and $80,000 listed alongside other calls.
Token talk
- Hyperliquid (HYPE) led the altcoin market for the second session in a row, rising 2.4% to $58.93 as it rebuilds with a series of higher lows since pulling back in July from record highs.
- AI tokens FET and NEAR showed gains of 2.23% and 1.38% respectively, giving preliminary signs of stabilization after weeks of underperformance, while added 1.89% to extend one of the more consistent runs in the DeFi sector this month.
- returned 2.13% off Thursday’s 12% gain, a familiar pattern for the Trump family-linked token, which remains highly susceptible to sharp pullbacks due to thin liquidity.
- Lighter (LIT) fell another 1.32%, extending a slide that has now settled close to 20% from its July peak as profit-taking continues after its 200%-plus rally between May and early July.
- The broader 24-hour picture tells a more cautious story, with WLFI, AVAX, HBAR, and SUI all down between 4% and 10% over the past 24 hours, a reminder that the intraday recovery is masking continued weakness across part of the altcoin market.
