A weekend Truth Social Post from President Donald Trump set in motion the first steps to create a strategic American Bitcoin (BTC) reserve, but polyming dealers are skeptical that it will happen within the first 100 days.

From pressing time, the polymarket -bettors give a 23% chance of creating a strategic BTC reserve within the first 100 days of the Trump Presidency -or by April 30, 2025.

The rules of the contract say that the US government must specifically hold Bitcoin – and not from confiscation – at 1 p.m. 23.59 one on April 29 for this to decide to be into yes. Announcements of the creation of a reserve do not count.

The chances of a reserve that comes true from 11% to 23% currently after Trump’s announcement. Another contract that asks if a reserve is being created by the end of 2025 currently has a 65% chance to solve to yes.

Originally, Trump’s social media posts announcing the creation of the reserve called only XRP and SOL as components of the reserve – which caused their value to increase – before it clarified that BTC and ETH would also be included in the reserve.

One of the most profitable traders in the 100-day cryptoreservice is Theo5, which appears to be affiliated with a French trader who created a number of accounts, including Theo4, to a directional rate on Trump’s victory in the November 2024 election.

Theo5 has currently released a profit of $ 40,000 on its no position.

Meanwhile, a trader known as Polywog lost $ 73,000 at their yes position and also lost over $ 560,000 by wrongly beting on the outcome of the 2025 election.