The newly elected Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney, who recently won a leadership competition from the Liberal Party to replace Justin Trudeau, has dramatically increased his odds of winning the next federal election in the eyes of the Bettors polymarket.

Carney now has a 49% chance of winning the next Canadian choice compared to 26% a month ago. Conservative opposition leader Pierre Poilievre’s chances are 51%, dropped from 72% in February.

The next Canadian federal election is scheduled to take place on October 20, 2025.

Under Canada’s Westminster system, whose opposition conservative and NDP jointly vote against the Liberal Government jointly on a self -confidence movement after Parliament resumes from Prorogation on March 24, requested by Trudeau on January 6, when he announced his resignation plans pending a new liberal leader, the government would fall and trigger a choice.

Carney closes the gap against Poilievre on the polyming field – despite a delay between prediction markets and the polls – repeating what the polls show.

The Conservatives are only one percentage point in front of the Left, according to the Canadian Pollster Nanos Research, down from almost a 16-point lead a month ago, according to an election.

Observers credit this dramatic shift to trade threats from the United States, with pollsters indicating that Canadians prefer Carney’s business sense and the central bank’s experience rather than his opponent.

This is all a bit of a contrast to last year’s US elections, where the prediction markets consistently showed that the then Republican candidate Donald Trump had the lead over his democratic opponents.

The election result, which Coindesk wrote in an editor at the time, was only a surprise to those who get their information from CNN.

Crypto on the Canadian campaign track?

Crypto does not appear to be a large plank of a hypothetical Canadian choice. While Poilievre has a Canadian-issued BTC ETF, according to revelations, and previously made pro-blockchain and crypto comments, most of the campaign rhetoric seems to be about the trade war.

Likewise, Carney, who has made mixed, has not, if not skeptical comments on crypto in his role as the Bank of England governor not yet talked about the subject in his new role as a liberal leader.