Renewed debate centers on persistent fiscal imbalance between federation and provinces
ISLAMABAD:
It was in September 2024 when speculation, sparked by a series of leaks, began to circulate that the federal government was planning the 26th constitutional amendment. As is often the case, the government publicly dismissed these reports as mere conjecture, while official circles firmly denied that such a move was under consideration.
Yet, just a few weeks later, the plan was not only publicly recognized, but the amendment was also quickly passed by Parliament.
Now, once again, similar murmurs are doing the rounds, suggesting that the federal government is considering yet another constitutional amendment.
And as with the 26th and later 27th Amendments, the pattern seems familiar: official denials on the surface, even as political whispers continue to build underneath.
Following the passage of the 26th and 27th constitutional amendments, discussion of a possible second round of constitutional amendments has re-entered Pakistan’s political discourse, with speculation surrounding a 28th constitutional amendment circulating in political and policy circles despite official denials that such a process is underway.
At the heart of the renewed discussion is Pakistan’s persistent fiscal imbalance between the federation and the provinces, most visibly reflected in the protracted debate over the National Finance Commission (NFC) Award.
As federal spending continues to rise, particularly for debt service and defense, issues of fiscal space and revenue distribution have re-emerged as structural pressures rather than isolated policy debates.
Analysts note that this recurring debate is less about an impending constitutional move and more about the limitations embedded in the fiscal federal structure, where constitutionally protected provincial shares coexist with a financially stretched federal government.
Law Minister Azam Nazeer Tarar has clarified that there are “no indications” of a draft 28th amendment, while noting that any future constitutional initiative will require consultation with coalition partners.
His remarks also point to ongoing policy discussions around population management, strengthening local governments and long-debated proposals for new provinces such as the Hazara and Saraiki regions.
In contrast, Bilawal Bhutto Zardari has stated that the Pakistan Peoples Party has not been consulted on such a proposal and reiterates that constitutional amendments cannot proceed without the PPP’s approval.
On the other hand, Prime Minister’s aide Rana Sanaullah has acknowledged that discussions with the PPP are taking place within political circles on fiscal constraints and burden-sharing between the federation and the provinces, driven by rising debt service and defense spending.
His remarks suggest that while no formal process exists, structural economic pressures continue to shape policy conversations.
Meanwhile, opposition voices, including the PTI, have called for clarity from the government on the nature and scope of any proposed constitutional amendments.
PTI Information Secretary Sheikh Waqas Akram, speaking to The Express Pakinomist, said the party’s stand reflects its nature as a national party. He said PTI believes in maintaining balance in resource allocation and review of National Finance Commission (NFC) Award is essential. He added that the 7th NFC Award, which was established after the 18th constitutional amendment, has not been properly reviewed after its term expired and instead has been extended annually through presidential ordinances.
Beyond political pronouncements, any constitutional change in Pakistan is ultimately constrained by parliamentary arithmetic, which requires a two-thirds majority in both houses of parliament.
In the National Assembly, this means at least 224 votes, while the Senate requires 64 votes. In the current parliamentary makeup, no single party has this strength independently, making coalition accommodation essential to any constitutional change. Even a combined position of grand coalition partners would still require the support of smaller parties and independents to reach the constitutional threshold.
Analyst Mazhar Abbas does not rule out the possibility of a government “surprise package”, noting that while the discussion remains speculative, political negotiations cannot be ruled out. He suggests that while a full rollback of the 18th Amendment is unlikely, there may still be room for negotiated adjustments, even if the 28th Amendment remains largely speculative at this stage.
Pildat Chairman Ahmed Bilal Mehboob noted that several elements of the PML-N legislative agenda remain pending and may reappear in any future constitutional package, especially those related to strengthening local government and fiscal arrangements.
He added that proposals linked to NFC adjustments and new provinces remain politically sensitive and will require broad consensus, especially from the PPP, which has historically opposed such changes.
He further noted that the constitutional process of creating new provinces is very complex and requires two-thirds support in the relevant provincial assemblies, making such initiatives difficult to realize in the short term.
