Backchannels put Iran-US negotiations back on track

A staff member removes the Iranian flag from the stage after a group photo with foreign ministers and representatives of the United States, Iran, China, Russia, Britain, Germany, France and the European Union during Iran’s nuclear talks at the Vienna International Center in Vienna, Austria July 14, 2015. PHOTO: REUTERS/FILE

ISLAMABAD:

Pakistan is set to host what could be the decisive round of talks between Iran and the United States, as a series of critical confidence-building measures by both sides revived hopes of a landmark deal on Friday, diplomatic sources said.

They said delegations from Tehran and Washington agreed in principle to travel to Islamabad for the next round, very soon.

The move follows an intense phase of behind-the-scenes diplomacy led by Pakistan after the initial round of talks failed to produce a breakthrough.

Sources described the upcoming engagement as “decisive”, with momentum restored after what they described as “unprecedented diplomatic efforts” by Islamabad to prevent the process from collapsing.

Pakistan’s role as mediator was initially met with skepticism, even in political circles at home.

Questions were raised about whether Islamabad possessed the leverage and credibility to bridge the deep mistrust between Iran and the US, and more importantly, to avert a potential military escalation.

But instead of public grandstanding, Pakistan quietly pursued a calibrated strategy of engagement with both sides.

Against the odds, Islamabad first managed to secure a two-week ceasefire, creating the necessary space for diplomacy to take root.

This was followed by a rare face-to-face meeting between Iranian and US officials in Islamabad, a significant milestone, although it failed to resolve key differences.

Diplomatic insiders say the real breakthrough came afterwards.

With the peace process stalled and Tehran deeply distrustful of Washington’s intentions, Pakistan escalated its efforts. In a high-stakes move, Chief of Army Staff Field Marshal Syed Asim Munir traveled to Tehran to engage directly with the Iranian leadership.

The visit, described by officials as “consistent”, proved crucial in removing key bottlenecks that had stalled progress.

The result was quick. A ceasefire in Lebanon was announced while Iran took the reciprocal step of reopening the Strait of Hormuz, developments widely seen as essential confidence-building measures to maintain dialogue.

Analysts believe that Pakistan’s effectiveness as a mediator stems from a combination of strategic factors.

While Islamabad maintains close ties with Tehran and has also cultivated cooperation with the Trump administration, observers argue that its influence goes beyond traditional diplomacy.

Pakistan’s status as a nuclear power, combined with its strong military and deep understanding of regional security dynamics, gave it exceptional leverage.

Unlike conventional brokers such as Oman or Qatar, Pakistan was able to take into account the wider geostrategic environment, including nuclear considerations, proxy conflicts and its defense ties with key regional players such as Saudi Arabia.

Using these levers, Islamabad conveyed a clear message to Tehran that the current window for a deal represented a strategic opportunity that might not remain open indefinitely.

At the same time, Pakistan engaged Washington at the highest level, calling for restraint and stressing the need to prevent potential spoilers from derailing the process.

Despite the progress, officials caution against premature optimism.

Ever since US President Donald Trump signaled his willingness to travel to Islamabad to sign a potential deal, a wave of optimism has gripped sections of the media. However, diplomats stress that the negotiations remain complex and far from over.

“A deal is only done when it’s done,” a source said.

While there is broad agreement on several issues, negotiations on more contentious points are still ongoing. The process involves detailed, step-by-step engagement that requires patience, precision and ongoing trust-building between parties with decades of enmity.

Officials also warn of lingering risks, including domestic political pressure in both countries and the possibility of outside spoilers trying to undermine progress.

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