Bitcoin fell below $73,000 to its lowest level since April 13 on Thursday as renewed fighting between the United States and Iran rattled global markets, pushed oil higher and dampened hopes for a permanent ceasefire.
The sale followed US attacks in southern Iran. Iran’s Revolutionary Guards said they retaliated by attacking the U.S. base used to launch the attacks and warned that future responses would be “more decisive,” the New York Times reported. Kuwait, which hosts five US bases, said it intercepted enemy drones and missiles.
The escalation dampened expectations that Washington and Tehran are close to a deal that could stabilize the Strait of Hormuz, a key global oil shipping route.
The chances of a permanent ceasefire being reached by the end of the month are now just 8% on the Polymarket, down from a peak of 70% at the weekend. Perceived odds of being reached by the end of the next month fell to 42% from 76%.
At Kalshi, traders are betting that traffic in the strait will remain subdued. Brent crude rose nearly 4% to around $96 a barrel. barrel, raising concerns that higher energy prices could add to inflationary pressures worldwide.
Crypto markets responded along with broader risk assets. According to Mercado Bitcoin head of research Rony Szuster, investors remain focused on geopolitical risks and upcoming US inflation data, particularly Thursday’s PCE report, the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation gauge.
“The crypto market remains structurally resilient, supported by long-term accumulation and the strength of AI and blockchain infrastructure narratives,” Szuster said in a note shared with CoinDesk.
“In the short term, the market remains more sensitive to geopolitical developments and the return of institutional flows after the US holiday, keeping bitcoin in consolidation while altcoins trade in a more selective environment,” he added. Pay attention!
Read more: For analysis of today’s activity in altcoins and derivatives, see Crypto Markets Today. For a comprehensive list of events this week, see CoinDesk’s “Crypto Week Ahead.”
What is trending
Today’s signal
- Bitcoin continues to trade below the 50-week exponential moving average of $84,000.
- The absence of RSI deviations on the weekly price chart indicates that there is no clear market direction.
- The next key level to watch is the $68,000 support mark.
