Bitcoin is currently down about 50% from its October 2025 all-time high of around $124,000. Trading near $62,000, has spent the last five months grinding sideways between $60,000 and $80,000, leaving the market in a state of apathy.
But a closely watched onchain metric suggests that this quiet period could help set the stage for a significant move.
Glassnode’s RHODL Ratio, which compares the wealth of long-term owners to that of newer market participants, reached 6.5 in early July, the second-highest reading in Bitcoin’s history. It has since started to fall and is now below 6. Crucially, this compression is happening while the price is stagnating, rather than collapsing.
In 2022, the relationship collapsed with a violent sell-off. The collapse of FTX caused Bitcoin to fall to around $15,000. The situation in 2026 looks different. Bitcoin continues to trade near $60,000 as coins change hands with no sign of panic.
This suggests a gradual transfer of supply from long-term owners, many of whom accumulated during 2023 and 2024, to a new cohort of buyers who see current prices as a discount.
