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Bitcoins rally stalled in the $80,000-$82,000 range, where it has largely been trading since last Wednesday. While fund flows continue to point towards a possible breakout, macro risks, especially inflation, point to caution.
The US is scheduled to report its consumer price index (CPI) for April at 8:30 a.m. ET. According to FactSet, the median estimate is 3.7%, up from 3.3% in March. If proven correct, it would mark the biggest rise in CPI since January 2024 and be well above the trailing 12-month average of 2.7%.
Analysts worry that such a reading, especially against the backdrop of what President Donald Trump described as an “incredibly weak” U.S.-Iran ceasefire and still elevated oil prices, could trigger risk aversion, potentially weighing on asset prices.
“Markets are entering a very sensitive period where geopolitics, inflation risks and central bank expectations are colliding,” said Lukman Otunuga, head of market research at global brokerage FXTM. “The combination of elevated oil prices, uncertainty surrounding the Iran conflict and critical US economic data could drive increased volatility across commodities, currencies and global equities in the coming days.”
Yet the response may also depend on the core CPI print, which excludes the volatile food and energy component. The core reading is expected to have increased to 2.7% year-on-year from 2.6% in March.
It’s also possible that higher inflation has already been priced in, which may be why the rally stalled in the first place.
In addition to inflation, another important development is XRP and Solana’s (SOL) proximity to major supply zones. XRP briefly tested $1.50 today, a price where breakouts have repeatedly proven short-lived since February. The same goes for SOL, which has once again approached resistance near $97.
Institutional demand for these tokens is increasing. On Monday, the US-listed spot XRP ETFs pulled in $25.8 million in investor funds, the most since January 5th. Bitcoin and solana ETFs also continued to attract money, while ether ETFs lost $16.9 million.
In traditional markets, WTI crude futures jumped over 3% and Nasdaq futures fell over 0.7%, both pointing to risk aversion. Pay attention!
Read more: For analysis of today’s activity in altcoins and derivatives, see Crypto Markets Today. For a comprehensive list of events this week, see CoinDesk’s “Crypto Week Ahead.”
What is trending
Today’s signal
The chart shows XRP’s daily price swings in candlestick format since January.
The cryptocurrency tested resistance at $1.50 early today and has since pulled back. Over the past three months, the token’s recovery has been interrupted by sustained selling pressure above $1.50.
A decisive break above this level could trigger a much stronger rally as more traders start buying in, adding momentum to the move higher.
