Bitcoin testing $76,000 for a third day, trading at $75,440 as bullish traders continue to save $450 million in sell orders between $75,900 and $76,300, CoinGlass data shows.
The orders will be placed by traders who are either trying to short the range-high in anticipation of a return to around $68,000, and those defending against a breakout with liquidation risk above.
US stocks rose to record highs Thursday as the war in Iran appears to be winding down following a ceasefire between Israel and Lebanon.
The crypto market has outperformed stocks since the start of the war and is now taking a back seat.
Derivatives positioning
- Activity in the crypto futures market has picked up, with bitcoin briefly topping $76,000 in European opening hours. Total market volume is up 28% to $225.8 billion, while open interest (OI) is up over 1.5% to $126.68 billion.
- More notably, total liquidations are up 140% to $529 million, with short positions slightly outpacing longs, suggesting a mild short squeeze and building upward pressure in the market.
- Solana’s SOL leads the growth in OI among the largest cryptocurrencies. In 24 hours, the number of active contracts in Solana futures has increased by 11% to 5.53 billion SOL, the most since March 18. Dogecoin is another standout, with OI hovering at a six-month high of 14.17 billion DOGE.
- SOL’s capital inflows appear to be driven by increasing appetite for bullish positioning, with the positive funding rates and 24-hour OI-adjusted cumulative volume delta (CVD) signaling increasingly aggressive buying pressure.
- The signals for dogecoin remain mixed as a positive CVD points to buying pressure, while slightly negative funding rates suggest a persistent bearish sentiment among derivatives traders.
- Cardano’s ADA is leading on an OI-adjusted CVD basis, indicating strong buyer dominance and bullish positioning.
- The volatility meltdown continues, pointing to calm in the market and supporting further bullish price action. BTC’s 30-day implied volatility index (BVIV) has fallen to a fresh 2.5-month low of 43.35%. Ether’s index, EVIV, is hovering near recent lows of around 65%.
- On Deribit, BTC and ETH options continue to show a bias for puts as a sign of persistent downside fears. Overall, the market appears to be positioned for gains, but it is not yet willing to go all out.
Token talk
- Altcoins lagged behind bitcoin on Friday as traders waited for a potential breakout or rejection before making speculative bets.
- The heavily bitcoin-weighted CoinDesk 5 (CD5) index is up 0.8% since midnight UTC, while the altcoin-dominant CoinDesk 100 (CD100) is marginally in the red.
- The CoinDesk Memecoin Index (CDMEME) was the worst-performing benchmark, losing about 2.8% as several tokens gave back most of Thursday’s gains.
- CoinMarketCap’s “Altcoin Season” indicator is at 37/100, a neutral range after hitting 53/100 last month and 19/100 in February.
- While the broader altcoin market is subdued, a small corner of the market is outperforming; KAS added 3.9%, while PENDLE and AERO gained 3.5% and 2.5% respectively.
