Bitcoin still hovering near $75,000 as it hits a supply wall while institutional demand remains steady as traders weigh progress in U.S.-Iran peace talks during a two-week ceasefire.
The CoinDesk 20 (CD20) index rose about 1.9% in the past 24 hours, compared with bitcoin’s 1%, amid reports of an extension to the truce, which improved risk sentiment.
The gains come alongside a softer US dollar, which fell to a near six-week low, and easing government interest rates, conditions that often support crypto prices by lowering the relative appeal of holding cash. Gold also rose, pointing to a market balance balancing risk appetite with hedging demand.
Nevertheless, the background remains tense. The US blockade of Iranian ports and Iran’s threats to disrupt shipping lanes in the Persian Gulf and nearby waterways continue to cloud the outlook for the global economy.
Energy supply shocks have already started to fuel inflation expectations, a factor that could change central bank policy and spill over into crypto markets.
Onchain data also shows that bitcoin supply tends to emerge when prices reach important cost basis levels for short-term holders. That’s around $76,800, a level that could act as resistance when investors cash out on a breakout.
Derivatives positioning
- Crypto futures open interest (OI) is up 2.5% in the last 24 hours, even as trading volume fell 16% and liquidations fell 48% to $220 million.
- The divergence suggests that traders are adding or holding positions despite a slowdown in activity, indicating a build-up of exposure without strong conviction. The sharp drop in liquidations indicates reduced volatility and fewer forced exits.
- Among the major tokens, XRP and DOGE stand out with OI increases of at least 3%, showing a bullish combination of positive perpetual funding rates and OI-adjusted cumulative volume delta (CVD).
- DOGE has the most positive 24-hour CVD, indicating that buyers have been more aggressive in lifting offers and executing trades.
- On decentralized exchange Hyperliquid, perpetuities linked to commodities continue to do solid business, now accounting for 30% of the platform’s total theoretical open interest.
- Bitcoin and ether’s 30-day implied volatility indices, BVIV and EVIV, continue to hover below their 200-day moving averages, indicating calm in the market.
- In the BTC options market, one-week implied volatility is now trading cheaper relative to realized or actual volatility. In other words, short-term options are now cheap. This type of setup often leads traders to take bullish volatility bets via straddle/choke strategies that involve buying both call and put options.
- The Deribit-listed bitcoin and ether options continue to show a bias for puts. The continued demand for downside hedges indicates that the durability of the recent rally is still being questioned.
Token talk
- CoW Swap, a decentralized exchange aggregator linked to the CoW Protocol, suffered a domain name system (DNS) hijacking attack on Tuesday that redirected users to a malicious website and drained funds from connected wallets.
- The breach did not touch the protocol’s smart contracts or back-end systems. Instead, attackers used social engineering to gain control of the project’s domain registrar, allowing them to redirect traffic from cow.fi to a cloned interface designed to capture wallet credentials.
- Losses seem limited to affected users rather than the protocol itself. Onchain data indicates that at least $1 million has been drained, including a single wallet that lost 219 ETH.
- The COW token fell around 2.6% on the day, with trading volume increasing as the news spread. Prices continued to slide lower in the following sessions and are now 11% lower.
- The CoW DAO regained control of the cow.fi domain just over half a day ago, but the mood for the protocol doesn’t seem to have improved. The token has fallen another 6% since then.
