Bitcoin fell on Tuesday after going on a six-day winning streak, its longest since March. In any case, the gains looked fragile when viewed through the lens of several indicators.
The most followed is Coinbase Premium, which tracks the difference between bitcoin’s price on US-based exchanges Coinbase (COIN) and Binance. It has now been negative for fifty days in a row, according to data source Coinglass.
This means that for close to two months, BTC has been cheaper on Coinbase than Binance, which does not operate in the US. The discrepancy is an indicator of relatively weak demand in the world’s largest economy, a message underscored by the eight straight weeks of net outflows from U.S. spot exchange-traded funds. Historically, bull runs have had consistently positive Coinbase premiums.
Another worrying trend is seen in Japan, where bond yields just can’t stop rising. The 10-year yield rose to a 30-year high early today, lifting borrowing costs in the US, UK and Germany. A continued recovery, especially in government yields, could create headwinds for BTC.
While seasonality supports continued recovery, it’s the ETF flows that matter most, according to analysts.
