This is an excerpt from CoinDesk’s ‘Diary’ newsletter. Sign up here if you haven’t already.
Bitcoin has risen above $77,000, sparking a broader market rally that has lifted both the CoinDesk 20 (CD20) and CoinDesk 80 (CD80) indexes by more than 1% since midnight UTC. Some coins, such as privacy-focused Dash and XDC Network’s XDC token, are up 10% in the last 24 hours.
Some analysts continue to maintain a cautious stance, saying the market is caught between positive regulatory tailwinds and macro headwinds.
“Short-term action has been squeezed out [ETF] outflows and macro-prudence, while long-term positioning is supported by regulation, institutional access and reserve asset narratives,” Naeem Aslam, a former hedge fund trader and chief investment officer at Zaye Capital Markets, told CoinDesk in an email.
Aslam hailed President Donald Trump’s directive to the government and the Federal Reserve to review payment system access for fintech and crypto firms in support of digital assets.
Alex Kuptsikevich, chief market analyst at FxPro, said bitcoin’s recent rejection from the 50-day simple moving average sets the stage for a decisive move in the next few days.
“Bitcoin at the end of last month found support on the decline to the $76K region,” Kuptsikevich said in an email. “Over the past few days, this support has been reinforced by the 50-day MA, as has the market. On the other hand, resistance at the 200-day MA continues to fall, bringing the red lines of the bulls and bears closer together and marking the moment when the market will choose its trend for the coming months.”
A market update from financial technology and digital asset platform 1Konto put the onus on sustained recovery of ETF inflows.
“ETF flows have become one of the cleanest transmission channels between traditional portfolios and Bitcoin spot demand. If these flows turn negative at the same time as the long end sells out, Bitcoin trades more like a macro security than a stand-alone scarcity asset,” the firm said in its daily market update.
We believe Bitcoin may still stabilize ahead of broader risk assets, but the next lasting move is more likely to require either a calmer financial market or clear evidence of ETF demand rebuilding,” the firm said in its daily market update,” it added.
In traditional markets, futures tied to the Nasdaq 100 index rose 0.8% and oil fell as the Senate moved to curb Trump’s ability to wage war on Iran. Investors are also looking at Nvidia’s earnings later Wednesday. Pay attention.
Read more: For analysis of today’s activity in altcoins and derivatives, see Crypto Markets Today. For a comprehensive list of events this week, see CoinDesk’s “Crypto Week Ahead.”
What is trending
Today’s signal
Bitcoin’s five-day losing streak has run out of steam, and prices have nearly tested the 50-day simple moving average (SMA) late Tuesday.
Since then, BTC has bounced back above $77,000. The setup is quite simple: prices hang between 50-day SMA support and 200-day SMA resistance.
The two averages are converging, with the 200-day SMA falling and the 50-day target rising, narrowing the range and building pressure for a decisive move in either direction in the coming days.
A break below the 50-day SMA near $76,000 is likely to signal that the termination has failed and open the door to a retest of February’s lows near $73,000. On the other hand, a sustained close above the 200-day SMA near $82,500 would be a meaningful technical development, potentially drawing buyers to the sidelines and shifting the broader trend from bearish to neutral at minimum.
