In recent weeks, bitcoin Sentiment has been most bullish when price was highest and most bearish exactly when it was most stressed, according to Santiment data covering May 21 to June 4.
Peak bullishness hit on May 22 with bitcoin close to the all-time high of $78,000. The most bearish came on June 3rd with bitcoin near the lows. While sentiment is not a timing tool, peak conviction at highs and peak fear at lows are the inverse of where the trade usually pays.
Bitcoin recently traded near $62,400, down about 20% from its peak in late May. The risk image is cracked next to it.
Investments in artificial intelligence (AI) companies that pulled global stocks to record highs this year have stalled after Broadcom’s chip forecast missed expectations. South Korea’s KOSPI index fell 4.7% and the won and Indonesia’s rupiah are at multi-year lows as capital flees Asia.
US spot bitcoin ETFs ended a 13-day, $4.4 billion outflow streak on Thursday with a small $3.05 million inflow. Spot ether ETFs ended their parallel 17-session streak with $19.30 million on the same day. Both numbers are too small compared to the streaks they completed to call it a regime change.
Friday’s US non-farm payrolls report at 8:30 am ET is the binary catalyst. A soft print revives Federal Reserve rate-cutting expectations under new Chairman Kevin Warsh and is likely to pick up risk assets again, while a hot print could extend the relaxation.
And keep an eye on how bitcoin behaves at the $60,000 round number if it is tested before the data lands. Pay attention!
Read more: For analysis of today’s activity in altcoins and derivatives, see Crypto Markets Today. For a comprehensive list of events this week, see CoinDesk’s “Crypto Week Ahead.”
What is trending
Today’s signal
The chart shows weekly changes in bitcoin’s market cap against an index of altcoins that excludes the top 10 tokens.
Bitcoin has underperformed for several weeks as the altcoin target strengthened, and the ratio recently tested a resistance level that has persisted for over a year.
If declines in zcash, hyperliquid and near continue, chances are it will fall back further.
