Bitcoin pulled back to $76,500 from above $79,000 earlier in the week, halting the rally from late March lows below $65,000. Those expecting a quick return to form may note that recent economic releases do not support a major bullish move.
The most important is the University of Michigan’s Survey of Consumers, which showed the consumer sentiment index fell to a record low of 49.8 this month, driven largely by inflationary pressures linked to the Iran conflict.
Inflation expectations also rose sharply, with the one-year target rising to 4.8% in April from 3.8% the previous month. Long-term expectations (five to 10 years) have risen to 3.5%, the highest value since October 2025.
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Inflation expectations can become self-fulfilling, which is why central banks like the Federal Reserve monitor them closely and try to anchor them. The strong increase may therefore limit the Fed’s ability to signal interest rate cuts or liquidity relief in the short term, as further monetary policy easing risks intensifying inflationary pressures. This hawkish tilt, in turn, could limit upside or slow gains in BTC and other risk assets.
“For the Federal Reserve, the move in long-term expectations is the more dangerous data point. It is the variable the central bank watches most closely when assessing whether inflationary psychology is becoming untethered, and a one-month shift of this magnitude raises the bar for any short-term easing pivot, even as the real economy weakens at the margin,” say analysts at Bitfinex.
The Fed is expected to hold its benchmark interest rate steady between 3.5% and 3.75% this Wednesday.
Meanwhile, traders are also pricing in a potential rate hike from the Bank of Japan in June.
“Rate hikes this month look unlikely, according to current market sentiment. Financial bets suggest we could see more than two rate hikes in the Eurozone and UK before the end of the year. A hike in June is almost fully factored in. We now lack clarity in the data to make good decisions, and that is the biggest obstacle,” Timothy Misir, head of research at BRN, said in an email.
On the crypto-specific side, sustained ETF inflows remain essential to keep spot BTC supported on dips.
Meanwhile, coordinated industry efforts to limit fallout from KelpDAO exploitation have helped DeFi tokens outperform the broader market. The CoinDesk DeFi Select Index rose 0.5% over 24 hours, decoupled from the CoinDesk 20’s 1.5% decline. Pay attention!
Read more: For analysis of today’s activity in altcoins and derivatives, see Crypto Markets Today. For a comprehensive list of events this week, see CoinDesk’s “Crypto Week Ahead.”
What is trending
Today’s signal
The chart shows bitcoin’s hourly price swings in candlestick format since the end of March.
BTC has dived out of a rising trend line (white dashed line) that guided its upward trajectory since the beginning of this month. In addition, prices are trading at a discount to their 50- and 200-hour averages.
This configuration points to uptrend exhaustion and the possibility of a deeper price pullback. The bullish case would re-emerge if prices retrace both moving averages.
