An in-depth investigation into insider trading by Bubblemaps analysts reveals just how accurate bets on US attacks on Iran were, exposing a trend that experts fear poses huge risks to US national security.
In an interview with CoinDesk, Nicolas Vaiman, Bubblemap’s co-founder and CEO, expressed deep concern about the national security implications of this new alleged wave of insider trading. He warned that if those who observe the predictions can spot irregular trades, so can enemies of the United States.
“The question here is that they can make war plans accordingly,” Vaiman said. “Just to put it bluntly, this could potentially expose a lot of people’s lives.”
Vaiman said U.S. adversaries could easily spot the insider trading patterns and use that information to plan their own military strategies.
Luck alone cannot explain the accuracy
The warnings come as he and his team uncovered 80 bets on Polymarket that were so accurate that “luck alone cannot explain” the numbers.
Driven by geopolitical tensions, bets on military plans and outcomes have skyrocketed, with more than $1 billion this year alone. The ability to bet on global conflicts creates an entirely new category of insider trading.
Onchain data showed that several large, high-conviction bets were placed days before the February 28 surprise attacks on Iran, the removal of its supreme leader and the announcement of a ceasefire.
According to Bubblemaps, nine accounts linked to Polymarket earned more than $2.4 million by betting almost exclusively on US military operations.
“They just didn’t bet on US strikes days before they happened, but across multiple later dates to maximize profits,” Vaiman said. They also placed smaller losing bets on February 20, probably in an attempt to avoid attention.
A 98% win is hard to miss
However, it is hard to miss making dozens of bets with a 98% win rate. “During the Iran attacks, civilians reportedly checked the Polymarket to decide whether to sleep in bunkers or not,” Vaiman added. “So yes, governments and potential enemies are probably watching it.”
When asked if he had any indication that these insider traders were connected to the US government, Vaiman replied “we have no evidence that they are military insiders or even Americans.” He said, “the data is suspect and may indicate someone with an unfair informational advantage.”
Rep. Mike Levin recently said on X that “the insider trading problem with prediction markets is bigger than any of us could have known,” which is why he and Senator Adam Schiff introduced the DEATH BETS Act to ban contracts for war.
An insider trading arrest has been made. A US Army Green Beret, Master Sergeant Gannon Ken Van Dyke, made $400,000 on Polymarket bets he placed on Venezuela’s raid to extract President Nicolas Maduro, which he participated in. Later that month, a survey found that only 3% of “informed” traders ran accuracy, while 97% did not.
Bubblemaps first publicized their investigation on May 18 via a series of X-posts, sharing graphics and images as evidence confirming the statistically impossible accuracy of the timing on each of the bets.
Two weeks before its results, Polymarket announced a partnership with Chainalysis to bring Wall Street-grade oversight to its platform, in a clear signal from the prediction market provider that it is serious about cracking down on insider trading and market manipulation.
Potential for manipulation
According to Vaiman, all of this raises other questions and concerns, such as the potential for prediction markets to be manipulated.
“A government could intentionally place bets to create a false signal and mislead opponents into thinking something is happening,” he said. “Prediction markets are tools of intelligence and information warfare.”
He also noted that prediction markets don’t just predict the future, “they can change it.” He cited cases where journalists faced extortion threats from players trying to protect their financial positions.
On the other hand, Vaiman defended Polymarket’s structural design and the transparency it provides, while refusing to blame the platform for the compliance failures.
“I don’t want to dunk at Polymarket,” Vaiman said. “Realistically, anyone can use a cheap VPN or buy a KYC’d account. It’s not just a Polymarket problem. It’s an internet-wide problem.”
Polymarket did not immediately respond to CoinDesk’s request for comment. However, it has previously hit back at allegations of insider trading, saying it has strict insider trading rules, AI-powered monitoring and blockchain investigation to identify suspicious activity and report it to relevant authorities. “Insider trading is not welcome on Polymarket and those who attempt it will be identified,” the platform has said.
