About 10.83 million BTC are currently held at a loss, meaning their holders paid more than today’s price, versus 9.22 million still in profit, according to Glassnode data. This is the first time loss-making supply has overtaken profitable supply since the current cycle began and reflects how deeply the correction from bitcoin’s $109,000 peak in January has cut.
Historically, these crossovers have landed near periods of high economic stress and capitulation among newer buyers. They have also marked the point where coins migrate from weaker hands to stronger ones as only high conviction holders tend to sit at a loss rather than sell. Long-term accumulation of holders and rising wallet-cohort balances across multiple size groups have run parallel to this recent deterioration in profitability.
Bitcoin traded at $61,361 on Thursday, up 0.7% on the day and 2.5% on the week, still about 44% below January’s all-time high, as of CoinDesk data. Ether added 4.2% to $1,702 and Solana led the majors up 18.6% on the week to $80.44, with volume exceeding $3.6 billion.
Whether the supply transition marks a bottom depends on the following. In 2018-19 and 2022, similar readings preceded months of basing before a sustained recovery. The diagram does not resolve itself. ETF flows returning and easing macro pressure is what converts the accumulation signal into a price signal.
